Re: Why I Wouldn’t Have Signed Matt Cain

看板MLB作者hunterqiji (hunter)時間13年前 (2012/04/03 09:38)推噓23(23推 0噓 28→)

留言51則, 27人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

翻譯一下關鍵部分 ※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之銘言： : http://tinyurl.com/7wykqlv : A couple of hours ago, the Giants announced that they reached an agreement : with Matt Cain on a five year deal worth just over $110 million. Wendy Thurm : has already recapped the contract and why this is probably fair market value : for a quality pitcher with no health problems headed into his age 27 season. : And, she’s probably right – if the Giants wanted to keep Cain, they weren’ : t going to be able to do it for less than this. This isn’t a situation where : they just overpaid irrationally. Their options were either to sign him for : this price or watch him get more money from another team next winter. They : chose the former. 老人和Cain達成超過$110M的新合約。事實上﹐巨人基本不可能以更低的約綁住Cain. 其實這不是非理性的overpay, 他們要麼現在簽﹐要不下個冬天看他以更高的價格簽約其他球隊。老人選擇了前者﹐但我(作者)寧願選擇後者。 : I would have chosen the latter. : Matt Cain is a good pitcher. How good he’d perform in another set of : circumstances – different ballpark, different division, different pitching : coach, etc… – isn’t quite as well determined, but we’ve got a pretty good : idea that Cain is good at preventing runs in the context he’s currently in. : Over the last six years, he’s thrown 1,300 innings and posted an ERA- of 80, : meaning that he prevented runs at a rate of 20 percent above average. : Quantity and quality is a good package. It just doesn’t predict future : success as well as you might think. : Starting in 2002, here are some rolling six year windows where pitchers threw : at least 1,000 innings, the examples of pitchers around Cain’s age that : performed in a similar manner, and how they did going forward. : 2002-2007 : Carlos Zambrano, ages 21-26: 1,186 IP, 75 ERA-, 87 FIP-, 92 xFIP- : While Cain has better command than Zambrano, both got significantly better : results than their BB/K/GB rates would have suggested for a long period of : time. Like Cain, Zambrano was extremely durable, and had shouldered heavy : workloads while still taking the mound every five days. However, 2007 was the : last year that Zambrano managed 200 innings in a season, and he’s been a : significant disappointment ever since. : Jake Peavy, ages 21-26: 1,087 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP- : Peavy and Cain have a lot in common. Lots of success in pitchers parks in the : NL West, got better as they aged, and showed a strong track record heading : into their age 27 seasons. 2007 was Peavy’s best year, and marked the third : consecutive year he’d topped the 200 inning level. He hasn’t gotten over : 174 since, struggling with both health issues and diminished performance. : Mark Buehrle, ages 23-28: 1,357 IP, 83 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 95 xFIP- : Finally, some good news. Buehrle’s another guy who has consistently beat his : peripherals and showed extreme durability early in his career. That hasn’t : changed at all in the last four years, as he’s still the exact same 200 : inning workhorse he’s always been. : 2003-2008 : CC Sabathia, ages 22-27: 1,269 IP, 78 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 84 xFIP- : Sabathia was another young workhorse who has managed to both stay healthy and : stay excellent, but it’s worth noting that he succeeded with a more : traditional skillset of limiting walks and getting a ton of strikeouts. He’s : always been excellent at the three things a pitcher has the most control : over, so for him, it was more of a question of staying healthy rather than : sustaining abnormal run prevention skills. He stayed healthy and has been : fantastic since. : Josh Beckett, ages 23-28: 1,057 IP, 86 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 82 xFIP- : Beckett couldn’t match Cain’s track record for health and durability, but : he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in his mid-20s, and strung : together four consecutive seasons with at least 175 innings pitched. Yet, his : three years since have brought declined in performance and durability, and he : ’s regressed somewhat from his prior form. : John Lackey, ages 24-29: 1,216 IP, 86 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 90 xFIP- : Like Cain, Lackey’s value was built through quantity rather than just sheer : dominance, and he provided the Angels with a long run of solid but : unspectacular performances. His last three years have been a weird mix of : good, bad, and ugly, and now he’s going to spend the 2012 season rehabbing : from Tommy John surgery. : Brandon Webb, ages 24-29: 1,315 IP, 71 ERA-, 75 FIP-, 75 xFIP- : Webb was the total package, combining elite performance with the ability to : throw 200 innings year in and year out. He was in the running for the title : of the best pitcher in baseball. Then, he blew out his arm, and he’s thrown : just four innings in the Major Leagues over the last three years. His career, : at this point, appears to be over. : 2004-2009 : Dan Haren, ages 23-28: 1,154 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 81 xFIP- : Another success story, and another guy with a lot of similarities to Cain – : extreme durability, began as more of a good innings eater, and then steadily : improved into a legitimate frontline guy. He’s sustained his excellence even : after moving back to the American League, but like Sabathia, it’s been built : on a foundation of low walks and high strikeouts. : These eight guys represent a pretty mixed bag of future performance after : being identified as durable, quality starters early in their careers. Haren, : Sabathia, and Buehrle all show that Cain isn’t destined to turn into a : pumpkin, but Zambrano, Peavy, Webb, Lackey, and Beckett suggest that past : success doesn’t guarantee future success either. 以上列舉了8投手的很多方面﹐耐久力﹐優質先發等等。Haren,CC,Buehrle, 表明Cain不是注定成為南瓜(應該是假貨的寓意)﹐但大Z,Peavy, Webb, 發球機﹐北極則暗示過去的好成績並不能保証未來的成功。 : In reality, Cain’s future is something of a coin flip. He may or may not : stay healthy. He may or may not continue to prevent hits on balls in play. : History is littered with similar pitchers who have gone either way, and when : you’re betting $100+ million on a guy, you should get better than 50-50 odds : that he’ll continue to perform reasonably well going forward. 事實上﹐Cain的未來成功的概率就像扔硬幣一樣﹐50-50. 但球隊在你身上投資$100+m,你應該比50%成功可能更好才對。 : At $22 million per year over the next five years, Matt Cain essentially needs : to avoid all problems and continue to pitch as well as he has previously. He : might do just that, but there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall or : that his performance will head the wrong way sooner than later. There’s just : too much risk here for a team like the Giants to take on this kind of : contract, especially with so many other pressing needs in the organization. 每年$22m﹐Cain需要表現的和過去一樣好﹐但卻是有一定的風險他的手臂不行了。 : The Giants have a built-in pitching factory with AT&T Park and Dave Righetti : in place, and given that they’ve had a lot of success maximizing the returns : they get on importing pitchers from other organizations, they’re in a unique : position to avoid paying market rates for pitching and instead invest that : capital in getting some quality position players instead. It might not have : been the popular thing to do, but letting Cain walk at the end of the year : and throwing $22 million at a guy who swings the bat for a living may have : been a better use of fund. 老人處在一個獨特的位置, 可以避免用市場價簽下一個投手而簽一些其他位置的優秀球員。也許讓Cain在賽季末離開﹐而用$22m去簽下其他打者才是更好的利用球隊的資金。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 128.252.20.193 ※ 編輯: hunterqiji 來自: 128.252.20.193 (04/03 09:39) ※ 編輯: hunterqiji 來自: 128.252.20.193 (04/03 09:40) ※ 編輯: hunterqiji 來自: 128.252.20.193 (04/03 09:41)

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