Re: [閒聊] 克蘇恩數學題求詳解
※ 引述《ACC810919 (PB)》之銘言:
: 剛剛看實況的實況主在玩克蘇恩德
: 己方場面大劣勢,下一回合就要淘汰了
: 手上有炎魔、克蘇恩(15/15)
: 對方有6隻生物,英雄剩6血
: 實況主選擇丟克蘇恩
: 聊天室表示丟炎魔贏的機率比較高(1/7)
: 請問這個時候要如何計算丟克蘇恩的勝率有多少?
: 看聊天室說用排列組合(C)就可以算出來
: 可是我是文組的 高中數學沒學好算不出來QAQ
: 請各位奧林匹亞國手教教我這隻憤怒雞怎麼算~
老師說 用樹狀圖一定可以解
於是我就撞樹了
假設分母為7的15次方(打15次假設怪物不死且無異能)
7^15=4747561509943
全中臉的次數 C(15,15)*6^0 1
只中14發 C(15,14)*6^1 90
只中13發 C(15,13)*6^2 3780
只中12發 C(15,12)*6^3 98280
只中11發 C(15,11)*6^4 1769040
只中10發 C(15,10)*6^5 23351328
只中9 發 C(15,9)*6^6 233513280
只中8 發 C(15,8)*6^7 1801388160
只中7 發 C(15,7)*6^8 10808328960
只中6 發 C(15,6)*6^9 50438868480
只中5 發 C(15,5)*6^10 181579926528
只中4 發 C(15,4)*6^11 495217981440
只中3 發 C(15,3)*6^12 990435962880
只中2 發 C(15,2)*6^13 1371372871680
只中1 發 C(15,1)*6^14 1175462461440
全都沒打臉 C(15,0)*6^15 470184984576
所以將6發以上相加=63307321399
除以7^15
大約等於1/75 << 1/7
希望沒算錯...
謝謝大家
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