Re: [問題] 神秘挑戰者
神秘挑戰者 是否能準時下? (參照之前小斧頭文)
假定牌組有兩張挑戰者
以沒辨法準時下神挑戰者反推
A.先手
起手 28取3/30取3 都沒抽到全換還是沒抽到 平方
一到六回沒抽到 25取6/27取6
相乘為 0.389536266 (先手無法六回準時下的機率)
1-0.389536266=0.610463733
B.後手
起手 28取4/30取4 都沒抽到全換還是沒抽到 平方
1.用幸運幣
一到五回沒抽到 24取5/26取5
相乘為 0.360681728 (後手用幸運幣無法五回準時下的機率)
1-0.360681728=0.639318271
2.不用幸運幣
一到六回沒抽到 24取6/26取6
相乘為 0.326331087 (後手不用幸運幣無法六回準時下的機率)
1-0.326331087=0.673668912
C.結論
遇到秘密聖 至少61% 神秘挑戰會準時
給END
A.先手 61% 六回準時下
B.後手 64% 幸運幣五回準時下
67% 六回準時下
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更新第六回也要抽牌
※ 編輯: coolda (1.171.78.119), 10/13/2015 19:57:37
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