Re: [心得] Tempo Storm Meta Snapshot #28
你牌庫剩餘X張牌 裡面含有堆當時狀況有用的牌Y張
從牌頂拋棄Z張 當然假定Z<X
請問你下一張抽到有用的牌機率是否維持不變?
答案是yes
所以我直接把好的狀況跟壞的狀況切半講
這副作用可以視同沒有
有疑問的人可以自行假設一下 牌庫剩5張 只有1張牌可以救你
你被燒了3張 請問燒完之後你抽到你要的牌機率是多少
當然這很反直覺 因為重要的不是丟了什麼牌
而是牌庫裡剩餘什麼牌
而好壞狀況相抵可以說互相抵消了
因此說截奪者把你好牌丟掉讓你抽不到這是不公平的
當然他的缺點仍然在 就是你不幸牌庫被打乾的時候
不過我想牌小的機械法應該也活不到那時候 或者那時候本來也沒救了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 140.113.124.94
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Hearthstone/M.1441508380.A.25A.html
※ 編輯: wen17 (140.113.124.94), 09/06/2015 11:00:54
推
09/06 11:10, , 1F
09/06 11:10, 1F
→
09/06 11:10, , 2F
09/06 11:10, 2F
→
09/06 11:11, , 3F
09/06 11:11, 3F
→
09/06 11:11, , 4F
09/06 11:11, 4F
仍然有把你牌庫燒乾這副作用 沒燒乾之前可以視同沒有
※ 編輯: wen17 (140.113.124.94), 09/06/2015 11:12:12
→
09/06 11:11, , 5F
09/06 11:11, 5F
→
09/06 11:12, , 6F
09/06 11:12, 6F
→
09/06 11:13, , 7F
09/06 11:13, 7F
→
09/06 11:14, , 8F
09/06 11:14, 8F
→
09/06 11:14, , 9F
09/06 11:14, 9F
推
09/06 11:14, , 10F
09/06 11:14, 10F
推
09/06 11:14, , 11F
09/06 11:14, 11F
→
09/06 11:14, , 12F
09/06 11:14, 12F
→
09/06 11:15, , 13F
09/06 11:15, 13F
我建議你可以假設牌庫剩下3張 裡面有1張有用的 你燒一張
其實不管XYZ是多少都算出來都是不變
※ 編輯: wen17 (140.113.124.94), 09/06/2015 11:16:00
→
09/06 11:15, , 14F
09/06 11:15, 14F
→
09/06 11:16, , 15F
09/06 11:16, 15F
推
09/06 11:16, , 16F
09/06 11:16, 16F
→
09/06 11:16, , 17F
09/06 11:16, 17F
→
09/06 11:16, , 18F
09/06 11:16, 18F
→
09/06 11:16, , 19F
09/06 11:16, 19F
→
09/06 11:17, , 20F
09/06 11:17, 20F
推
09/06 11:18, , 21F
09/06 11:18, 21F
→
09/06 11:18, , 22F
09/06 11:18, 22F
→
09/06 11:18, , 23F
09/06 11:18, 23F
→
09/06 11:18, , 24F
09/06 11:18, 24F
→
09/06 11:18, , 25F
09/06 11:18, 25F
推
09/06 11:18, , 26F
09/06 11:18, 26F
→
09/06 11:19, , 27F
09/06 11:19, 27F
→
09/06 11:19, , 28F
09/06 11:19, 28F
→
09/06 11:19, , 29F
09/06 11:19, 29F
→
09/06 11:19, , 30F
09/06 11:19, 30F
※ 編輯: wen17 (140.113.124.94), 09/06/2015 11:20:45
→
09/06 11:19, , 31F
09/06 11:19, 31F
推
09/06 11:22, , 32F
09/06 11:22, 32F
→
09/06 11:22, , 33F
09/06 11:22, 33F
→
09/06 11:23, , 34F
09/06 11:23, 34F
→
09/06 11:24, , 35F
09/06 11:24, 35F
推
09/06 11:24, , 36F
09/06 11:24, 36F
還有 102 則推文
還有 3 段內文
→
09/06 13:46, , 139F
09/06 13:46, 139F
推
09/06 13:51, , 140F
09/06 13:51, 140F
→
09/06 13:51, , 141F
09/06 13:51, 141F
推
09/06 14:05, , 142F
09/06 14:05, 142F
→
09/06 14:05, , 143F
09/06 14:05, 143F
→
09/06 14:06, , 144F
09/06 14:06, 144F
→
09/06 14:08, , 145F
09/06 14:08, 145F
→
09/06 14:09, , 146F
09/06 14:09, 146F
→
09/06 14:12, , 147F
09/06 14:12, 147F
→
09/06 14:13, , 148F
09/06 14:13, 148F
→
09/06 14:13, , 149F
09/06 14:13, 149F
→
09/06 14:14, , 150F
09/06 14:14, 150F
推
09/06 14:18, , 151F
09/06 14:18, 151F
→
09/06 14:20, , 152F
09/06 14:20, 152F
→
09/06 14:43, , 153F
09/06 14:43, 153F
→
09/06 14:43, , 154F
09/06 14:43, 154F
→
09/06 14:45, , 155F
09/06 14:45, 155F
推
09/06 14:53, , 156F
09/06 14:53, 156F
→
09/06 14:54, , 157F
09/06 14:54, 157F
→
09/06 15:00, , 158F
09/06 15:00, 158F
→
09/06 15:00, , 159F
09/06 15:00, 159F
推
09/06 15:33, , 160F
09/06 15:33, 160F
→
09/06 15:35, , 161F
09/06 15:35, 161F
→
09/06 15:36, , 162F
09/06 15:36, 162F
→
09/06 15:42, , 163F
09/06 15:42, 163F
→
09/06 15:42, , 164F
09/06 15:42, 164F
→
09/06 15:43, , 165F
09/06 15:43, 165F
→
09/06 15:44, , 166F
09/06 15:44, 166F
→
09/06 15:45, , 167F
09/06 15:45, 167F
推
09/06 15:51, , 168F
09/06 15:51, 168F
→
09/06 15:51, , 169F
09/06 15:51, 169F
推
09/06 15:58, , 170F
09/06 15:58, 170F
推
09/06 16:27, , 171F
09/06 16:27, 171F
→
09/06 16:51, , 172F
09/06 16:51, 172F
→
09/06 16:52, , 173F
09/06 16:52, 173F
→
09/06 16:53, , 174F
09/06 16:53, 174F
→
09/06 16:53, , 175F
09/06 16:53, 175F
→
09/06 16:54, , 176F
09/06 16:54, 176F
推
09/06 20:59, , 177F
09/06 20:59, 177F
推
09/06 23:30, , 178F
09/06 23:30, 178F
討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 2 之 5 篇):