[轉錄] 經濟學人預測台灣武肺疫苗施打世界前段班
看板HatePolitics作者goldenfire (喵吞．Freeman)時間3年前 (2021/02/12 11:29)推噓48(48推 0噓 46→)留言94則, 61人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)
1.轉錄網址︰
※ 網址超過一行 請縮網址 ※
經濟學人智庫報告
https://reurl.cc/MZXG94
雜誌新聞：
https://reurl.cc/Xe59pe
2.轉錄來源︰
※ FB公眾人物、FB粉絲團名稱、其他來源 ※
經濟學人
3.轉錄內容︰
※ 請完整轉載原文 請勿修改內文與編排 ※
媒體完整報導要加入會員，所以就只轉貼智庫報告了
至於報告的細節也要付費就是
https://imgur.com/SR3isNG
（本圖重點：台灣世界最快打完疫苗的國家之一，預計今年底之前）
The rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus (Covid-19) has started in
developed countries, but mass immunisation will take time.
Production represents the main hurdle, as many developed countries have
pre-ordered more doses than they need.
The costs associated with mass immunisation programmes will be significant,
especially for less-developed countries that have limited fiscal resources.
Vaccine diplomacy will play a role in determining which countries get access
to a vaccine in the coming months.
Russia and China will use the rollout of their own coronavirus shots to
advance their interests.
With priority groups vaccinated in rich economies by end-March, The EIU
expects global economic prospects to brighten from mid-2021.
For most middle-income countries, including China and India, the vaccination
timeline will stretch to late 2022.
In poorer economies, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved
before 2023, if at all.
In early 2021 three vaccines, from Pfizer (US)-BioNTech (Germany), Moderna
(US) and AstraZeneca-Oxford University (UK), will be rolled out on a massive
scale in developed countries. Meanwhile, Chinese and Russian vaccines are
being rolled out both domestically and to emerging countries such as Egypt,
via diplomatic bilateral deals. This will foster so-called vaccine diplomacy—
with Russia and China trying to bolster their global status via the delivery
of vaccines—this year and beyond.
Countries at the front of the queue—including the UK, the US and most
countries in the EU—are expected to have immunised their priority groups by
end-March, with other wealthy countries catching up by end-June. We therefore
expect that global economic prospects will brighten from mid-2021, with the
global economic rebound gaining speed in the third and fourth quarters.
However, life will not be back to normal by then, as immunisation programmes
for the bulk of the population will continue until mid-2022.
Among middle-income countries, Russia, which has developed its own vaccines,
could be on a similar schedule to richer economies, with mass immunisation
completed by mid-2022. Other middle-income countries, including Mexico and
Brazil, have been promised supplies in return for running clinical trials or
housing production factories. This should give them early access to doses for
priority groups, although their ability to achieve mass vaccination will
depend on other factors including fiscal space, population size, number of
healthcare workers, infrastructure and political will. China and India
represent special cases; both countries have developed their own shots and
are pressing ahead with rollout plans, but the sheer size of their population
means that mass immunisation programmes will stretch until late 2022, in line
with the expected timeline for most middle-income countries.
Finally, some other middle-income countries and most low-income countries
will be relying on COVAX, an initiative led by the WHO that aims to secure
6bn doses of vaccine for poorer countries. The first 2bn of these will be
given in 2021, mainly to healthcare workers (COVAX doses will cover only up
to 20% of the population of each country). However, COVAX supplies may be
slow to arrive, especially if delays in the production for and delivery to
richer countries push back delivery dates for poorer nations. In these
developing countries, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved
before 2023, if it happens at all.
Methodology:
This map depicts the latest forecasts from The EIU for the rollout of
coronavirus vaccines, reflecting the time when countries may expect to have
vaccinated the majority (60-70%) of their adult population. Criteria taken
into account include supply deals, production constraints, vaccine hesitancy,
the size of the population, and the availability of healthcare workers. The
data are also adjusted by analysts to reflect specific conditions on the
ground.
“The contrast between rich countries and poorer ones is stark. Most
developing countries will not have widespread access to the shots before 2023
at the earliest. Some of these countries—particularly poorer ones with a
young demographic profile—may well lose the motivation to distribute
vaccines, especially if the disease has spread widely or if the associated
costs prove too high.”
AGATHE DEMARAIS, THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT GLOBAL FORECASTING DIRECTOR
Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccine diplomacy will also be an important trend to
keep an eye on. Both Russia and China will seek to adopt a transactional
approach to the delivery of vaccines, using coronavirus shots as a bargaining
chip to advance long-standing interests.”
Finally, Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccines against many diseases, such as
polio or tuberculosis, have been available for decades. However, many people
in poorer countries remain unable to get access to them. What was termed a “
novel coronavirus” only one year ago will be with us for the long term,
alongside the many other diseases that have shaped life over the centuries.”
Download our report “Coronavirus vaccines: expect delays” to find out more.
4.附註、心得、想法︰
※ 40字心得、備註 ※
簡單來說，經濟學人預估何時可以打完的方式是利用
買不買得到疫苗、硬體設備好不好、總人口數、醫療體系完備程度
作為評分要點
所以根據經濟學人的預測，台灣會在世界第一批打完疫苗的國家之內
預計在2021年底前會打到群體免疫
甚至比日本、韓國還要快打到60-70%
再貼一次圖：
https://imgur.com/SR3isNG
以下開放柯韓五毛崩潰經濟學人綠共側翼野雞雜誌
※ 「Live」、「新聞」、「轉錄」此類文章每日發文數總上限為3篇，
自刪與板主刪除，同樣計入額度 ※
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 14.12.10.193 (日本)
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/HatePolitics/M.1613100596.A.F46.html
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※ 編輯: goldenfire (14.12.10.193 日本), 02/12/2021 11:35:24
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