Re: [討論] 美國總統大選預測消失
※ 引述《speedup1104 (昇陽帝國)》之銘言:
: http://www.270towin.com/maps/OOemQ
: 身為川普粉絲 理當一馬當先
: 我在此大膽預測:
: 川普會拿下CO NV AZ FL OH IA NC ME2(1)
: 以275張選舉人票入主白宮
: 並順利當選49屆總統!
: 要M來M吧
: 現在力挺的川粉只剩下我了QQ
我也來估票 美國大選其實比台灣容易估票
因為美國是選舉人團制 且兩大黨各有基本盤(州)
比較有變化的就是中間那些搖擺州
在希拉蕊這邊 除了民主黨的核心基本盤藍色州共241票之外(前文有說明)
這屆至少還多了Virginia (13)副總統參選人的家鄉,()內為選舉人票數
還有New Mexico (5)第三黨參選人為New Mexico前州長 曾為共和黨籍
這兩州希拉蕊的勝算也偏高 加上前面的傳統藍色州 已經有259票
另外也有媒體認為New Hampshire (4)是希拉蕊略佔優勢
只要在Florida (29) Ohio (18)或North Carolina (15)當中拿下一州
就可以超過當選所需的270票門檻
或許有人說基本盤是會變的 但以川普目前的表現來看
要拿到傳統(已維持六屆)藍色州的選舉人票並不容易
至於在川普方面 穩定支持他的州有
Louisiana (8)
Utah (6)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Alaska (3)
Kansas (6)
Nebraska CD2 (1)
Alabama (9)
Arkansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Idaho (4)
Nebraska (4)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)
Indiana (11)
South Carolina (9)
Texas (38)
Missouri (10)
Georgia (16)
合計180票
另有Arizona (11)個人猜測還是共和黨拿下的機會較大
目前雙方要爭取的搖擺州選票則有
Florida (29)
Ohio (18)
North Carolina (15)
Nevada (6)
Iowa (6)
Maine CD2 (1)
合計75票
初步估計大約是這樣 但幾個搖擺州民調差距很近
仍可能有變數 所以選前可能會再修改部分預估的數字
川普若要想贏 那幾個搖擺州幾乎要全部拿下才有機會
其中的Ohio 更是共和黨必須贏才有機會的選區
因為從20世紀以來 共和黨參選人 幾乎沒有在輸掉Ohio而能當選的
是1960年的甘迺迪 他是民主黨籍
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