[爆卦] 美學者：川普逼烏割地恐助長美國棄台論

看板Gossiping作者usnavyseal (usmarine2008)時間3周前 (2026/01/02 19:06)推噓9(12推 3噓 27→)

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Ryan Hass何瑞恩為美國智庫布魯金斯資深研究員、中國中心主任曾被總統府接見 https://x.com/ryanl_hass/status/2006844091338997948 https://i.meee.com.tw/UOgeV9L.png

他最新的發文提到了川普的外交政策包含台海局勢及烏克蘭 gpt翻譯 1/ Important reporting on the Trump administration's efforts to end war in Ukraine. I expect this chronicle of the Trump admin's unprincipled, erratic, naive efforts will be unnerving to those in Asia and elsewhere who rely on US for security. 關於川普政府試圖終結烏克蘭戰爭的努力，有一篇很重要的報導。我預期，這份對川普政府缺乏原則、反覆無常、天真式作為的紀錄，會讓亞洲以及其他仰賴美國提供安全保障的人感到不安。 https://i.meee.com.tw/mkI7w0t.png

2/ Leaders in Taipei and Tokyo have consistently underscored that Ukraine's situation bears directly on their sense of security. Taiwan's leaders, in particular, have never been drawn to arguments that the US should abandon Ukraine to shift focus to China. 台北與東京的領導人一致強調，烏克蘭的局勢直接關乎他們的安全感。特別是台灣的領導者，從未被「美國應放棄烏克蘭以將焦點轉向中國」這類的論點所吸引。 3/ Taiwan's leaders face heavy psychological pressure from Beijing. China's goal is to induce fatalism in Taiwan, to convince people in Taiwan that resistance is futile. Few American actions could do more to abet Beijing's efforts than compelling Ukraine's capitulation. 台灣領導人面臨來自北京巨大的心理壓力。中國的目標是在台灣內部引發「宿命論」，讓台灣人相信反抗是徒勞的。而在助長北京這類企圖的行為中，幾乎沒有什麼比「強迫烏克蘭投降」更具破壞力的了 4/ Taiwan's security doesn't just hinge on US munitions stockpiles. It depends on confidence that the US will be sure-footed, consistent, firm, and principled in insisting that cross-Strait differences ultimately are resolved without resort to violence or coercion. 台灣的安全不只是取決於美國彈藥庫存。它同樣仰賴一種信心：美國在堅持兩岸分歧最終必須在不訴諸暴力或脅迫的情況下解決時，會步伐穩健、一貫強硬、立場堅定且有原則。 5/ The more that America acts in ways that are unprincipled and unconfident in responding to acts of aggression by other major powers, the more risk Taiwan's leaders will face. Jerking around Ukraine does not bolster America's capacity to defend Taiwan. It undermines it. END. 美國在應對其他大國的侵略行為時，表現得越是缺乏原則與自信，台灣領導人面臨的風險就越大。對烏克蘭頤指氣使（或反覆擺佈）並不會增強美國捍衛台灣的能力，反而會削弱它。 gpt分析 https://i.meee.com.tw/BXJv2Iy.png

1. 烏克蘭不是「歐洲的事」而已，是美國安全承諾的壓力測試 2. 最可怕的不是武器庫存，而是「信心崩盤」 3. 他其實在敲打「川普式交易外交」：把烏克蘭當籌碼會反噬台灣防衛 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.248.243.99 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1767351973.A.138.html

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