[爆卦] 美智庫: 廢核押天然氣 讓中國封鎖成本更低
看板Gossiping作者usnavyseal (usmarine2008)時間3周前 (2025/11/14 10:32)推噓165(184推 19噓 137→)留言340則, 263人參與討論串1/2 (看更多)
全球台灣研究中心(Global Taiwan Institute)美國智庫之一 長期被我國高層接見
作者Jackson Lopez在GTI談台灣的能源問題，他是牛津大學人工智慧政策的研究員
https://i.meee.com.tw/vchLc8T.png
Losing the Buffer: What a Less Diverse Energy Mix Means for Taiwan’s Security
失去緩衝：能源結構單一化對台灣安全意味著什麼
gpt懶人包
1. 核三公投「高同意、沒過門檻」核電暫時出局
多數投票者支持重啟，但因公投門檻設計而失敗，賴清德雖鬆口不排除未來用核，短期內
仍是實質「非核」。
“Almost 75 percent of voters supported the restart, but the referendum fell
more than half a million votes short of the required threshold.”
2. 朝野能源路線對撞，「綠能加速 vs 挺核穩供」，變成兩邊最糟結果
民進黨押寶加速綠能、犧牲核電；國民黨與民眾黨則在立院卡預算，壓縮綠能推進空間，
讓整體能源政策搖擺矛盾。
“The Democratic Progressive Party has long advocated for an accelerated
green energy transition at the expense of nuclear power… The outcome has
been the worst of both worlds.”
3. AI 資料中心吃電暴增，「工業用電已逾 5 成」未來只會更緊繃
台灣工業用電占比已超過一半，高於 OECD 平均；AI 與機器人相關的資料中心將重壓電
力需求，把原有的能源脆弱放大。
“Industry… already consumes more than half of Taiwan’s total electricity;
the OECD average is 32 percent.”
4. 綠能卡在制度和電網，「離岸風電與太陽能雙雙大幅落後進度」
離岸風電受限於成本超支、環評與許可拖延，2025 目標被迫延後；屋頂與大型光電則卡
在高前期成本、併網不穩與躉購費率設計。
“By late 2024, Taiwan had installed only 2.8 GW in offshore wind… growth in
solar has been sluggish for years, missing 2020 and 2025 targets.”
5. 天然氣正走向「發電一哥」：2030 擬達 5 成占比，卻只能撐住 11 天封鎖
朝野共識減煤、以 LNG 取代，接收站與燃氣機組大量擴建，但天然氣難以長期儲放，一
旦遭封鎖，目前庫存只夠正常用電約 11 天。
“LNG is intended to provide half of Taiwan’s total energy by 2030… Taiwan’
s current LNG stockpiles would only last for 11 days of normal use under a
blockade.”
6. 煤又髒又不討喜，卻是少數能多囤、機動調度的安全緩衝
燃煤庫存可撐 40 天以上，遇到危機還能靠節電拉長，且不需新建專用接收站即可臨時增
發，但政府仍規劃在 2034 年前關掉大型燃煤機組。
“Current coal stockpiles would last more than 40 days of normal use… coal
is used as a fallback for failed projects and other closures.”
7. 過度押寶 LNG，讓中國「卡能源、卡電力」成本更低
在缺乏本土能源下，單壓天然氣讓中國只要封鎖幾週，或在現貨市場抬價、限縮供給，就
有能力重創台灣電力與經濟。
“Beijing likely knows it only needs to wait a few weeks to starve Taiwan’s
power supply… China could inflate LNG prices on the open-spot market,
straining supply for the island.”
8. 能源轉型與國安不必對立：多元能源組合勝過迷信單一「乾淨解方」
作者主張，台灣應讓綠能市場更自由競爭，同時保留一定的燃煤與核能做戰略緩衝，避免
讓 LNG 一家獨大，犧牲長期安全。
“Energy security and clean energy aren’t necessarily in opposition… Taipei
must strive to preserve its nuclear sector and retain coal power capacity, at
least until renewables production matures.”
作者的總結
儘管對再生能源進行了投資，但台灣正變得越來越依賴液化天然氣（LNG）來滿足其能源
需求——這導致了對中共海上封鎖的極端脆弱性。為了確保韌性，台灣應該優先考慮多元
化的能源結構，即使這包括燃煤和核能等較不受歡迎的能源。
The main point: Despite investments in renewables, Taiwan is becoming
increasingly reliant on liquefied natural gas (LNG) for its energy needs—
resulting in extreme vulnerability to a PRC maritime blockade. To ensure
resilience, Taiwan should prioritize a diverse energy mix, even if it
includes less popular energy sources such as coal and nuclear power.
--
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※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1763087544.A.472.html
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※ 編輯: usnavyseal (118.160.44.61 臺灣), 11/14/2025 10:33:31
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