[新聞] 中國制裁未見效，澳洲煤炭出口維持強檔
備註請放最後面 違者新聞文章刪除
1.媒體來源:
澳廣 ABC
2.記者署名:
Ben Millington
3.完整新聞標題:
中國制裁未見效，澳洲煤炭出口維持強檔
4.完整新聞內文:
While Australian coal remains off limits in China, the trade tensions have
barely dented overall export figures from Australia's largest coal terminal,
with producers finding other international markets.
雖然澳洲煤炭仍禁入中國，這場貿易緊張態勢對澳洲紐卡索港（澳洲最大煤炭出口港）
的出口數據幾無皮肉傷，因為煤商已經找了其他國際買家。
China usually accounts for 20 per cent of exports from the Port of Newcastle,
and when coal ships stopped leaving for China in November, it raised the
prospect of a shortfall in demand.
以往，紐卡索港出口總量中，有兩成銷往中國，但就在十一月起澳洲不再把煤炭銷往中
國之際，人們原本預估澳洲煤在市場上會供過於求。
Yet, overall export figures for December show only a 3 per cent decline on
the previous year.
然而，十二月份的出口總數據顯示，澳洲煤的出口量比起前一年僅下滑 3%。
Rory Simington, senior analyst with Wood Mackenzie, said the international
coal market had rebalanced itself "remarkably quickly" in the face of the
trade war.
Wood Machenzie 能源公司資深分析師 Rory Simington 表示，國際煤炭市場在面對
這場貿易戰時，自我平衡的速度「非常神速」。
Mr Simington said new markets had opened for Australian producers, ironically
as a result of China's surging power demand for heating through a bitterly
cold northern winter.
Simington表示，中國華北地區在霸王級寒冬中對供暖能源需求的暴升，諷刺地反而替
澳洲煤炭打開了新的市場。
"The Chinese coal market's in a bit of chaos at the moment because there's
an extremely cold winter there and prices for domestic coal are extremely
high," Mr Simington said.
Simington 說道：「中國煤炭市場現在陷入一些混亂當中，因為眼下中國正值極凍寒冬
而且其國內煤炭需求非常非常高。」
"So they've gone to other places like Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and
have pushed up prices in those destinations — that has provided
opportunities for Australian coal into other destinations that it wouldn't
normally compete into.
「於是，他們便向其他賣家如印尼、俄羅斯、南非等國買炭，然後就把那些國家的煤炭
價格推高了。如此一來便給了澳洲機會，將煤炭銷到一些原本澳煤沒競爭優勢的市場。」
"If China pushes up Indonesian prices, that means a consumer in India is
looking at relatively much higher prices for Indonesian coal, and they're
saying, 'well, I'll just have some Australian, thanks'."
「要是中國把印尼煤價抬高了，那印度的買家如果要買印尼的煤，就得面對更高的價格
，他們就會說『老闆，給我來份澳洲煤，謝謝。』」
Mr Simington said new export orders to India, Pakistan, Turkey and even
Spain had cushioned the shock for Australian coal producers.
Simington 說道，來自印度、巴基斯坦、土耳其、甚至是西班牙的新訂單，讓澳洲煤商
原本面對的衝擊能夠得到減緩。
In its December quarterly statement to the ASX, Whitehaven Coal explained
that they were sourcing Australian coal through other countries:
Whitehaven 煤炭公司在對澳洲證交所第四季的報告當中，說明了中國正在透過第三國
購買澳洲煤炭。報告引文如下：
China has supplemented its domestic coal production with higher cost coal
from alternative origins such as Russia, Indonesia and South Africa.
In addition, late in 2020 China lifted its total import quota in response
to strong domestic demand and an extremely cold winter.
China's restrictions have altered seaborne coal trade flows where, instead
of being delivered to China, Australian coal is now finding customers in
alternate destinations including India, Pakistan and the Middle East, and
traded coal historically delivered into these markets is finding its way
into China.
「 中國除了國產煤外，也從其他高成本煤炭產地如俄國、印尼、南非等進口煤炭
作為補充。
此外，2020年末，中國為了因應霸王級寒冬以及國內對煤高度需求，便取消了
煤炭輸入配額限制。
中國對澳煤的禁令改變了煤炭海運路線生態，原本輸往中國的澳煤現在在替代
市場找到了買家，其中包括印度、巴基斯坦、以及中東諸國，這些國家會把向澳洲
買的煤炭再轉手賣給中國。」
Annual figures for Port Waratah Coal Services (PWCS), which handles the bulk
of coal loading in the Port of Newcastle, show its exports to China dropped
from 18 per cent in 2019 to 8 per cent in 2020.
負責紐卡索港煤炭裝貨的PWCS公司的年度數據顯示，銷往中國的煤炭對整體煤炭外銷的
佔比從2019年的18%，降到了2020年的8%。
But overall there was only a 4 per cent decline, which PWCS chief executive
Hennie de Plooy attributed to the pandemic
但是整體煤炭外銷的降幅僅4%，而PWCS執行長Hennie de Plooy將之歸因於疫情。
"Certainly very little coal from here went into China sort of in the last
four or five months of the year, but producers in the Hunter Valley were able
to find replacement markets for basically all of the coal that didn't go to
China," he said.
「過去的四五個月當中，從這裡銷往中國的煤炭自然是很少，但杭特谷這裡的煤商已經
為所有沒成功賣到中國的煤炭找到了替代市場。」
"I think the main impact was actually the pandemic, the demand really
softened in the first half of the year around April-May, when a lot of the
economies basically shut down and energy demand dropped.
"Economies restarted in the second half and demand picked up."
「我認為主要的影響是來自疫情。在去年上半年四五月左右需求真的下滑了，因為那陣子
許多經濟活動都停了下來，使得能源需求下跌。
到了下半年，經濟活動又恢復了過來，需求就自然回升。」
In another win for the industry, thermal coal prices rose significantly at
the end of 2020, up from a low of around $US50 a tonne, where many Australian
coal producers are cash negative, to now above $US80 a tonne.
澳煤還有另一個佳音，熱能煤炭價格自2020年底各大煤商賠錢之際的每噸50美元低點，
竄漲到現今的每噸80美元
Mr Simington said the prices were being driven not only by China but also
Japan and other Northern Hemisphere countries experiencing the cold winter.
Simington 表示，煤價上漲不只因為中國，也因為北半球其他國家如日本也在面臨極冷
的寒冬。
"Obviously this peak winter demand will pass and things will probably ease
off considerably around Chinese New Year, when it looks like the government
there is asking people to close up early as a reaction to coronavirus issues,"
he said.
他說：「顯然，冬季的需求巔峰會過去，到春節左右就會平穩下來，屆時中國政府又會
因為疫情叫大家提早收工放假。」
"So we're expecting to see quite a significant decline in China that could
bring prices down — but having said that, my feeling is that Chinese
domestic prices are going to support seaborne prices pretty significantly
through much of, if not all, of 2021.
「因此，我們期望接下來中國國內的煤價有機會下跌，但即使這樣講，我覺得中國的煤
價還是會在2021年大部份的時間裡繼續把海運煤炭的價格撐著。」
"Prices can come off an awful long way and still be supportive of where
seaborne prices are at the moment."
「（其國內）價格下跌得再多，都還是有可能繼續把海運煤炭撐在現今的價格。」
Mr Simington said there was "absolutely no sign" of the Chinese Government
relenting on its Australian coal ban.
"I think the Chinese Government is showing that it's prepared to endure quite
a bit of pain with coal prices where they are in China," he said.
Simington 表示，中國政府「完全沒有對澳煤禁令鬆綁的跡象」。
他說：「我覺得中國政府顯示了他們已準備好要忍受高煤價所帶來的各種痛楚。」
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
https://tinyurl.com/y3pkaozw
6.備註:
結果倒頭來黃豆的教訓也沒學到，禁澳煤反而還得跟別國買轉手加價過的澳煤
鞭懲澳洲，澳洲不疼，韭菜凍死，中或最贏
--
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