[新聞] 石油儲存空間即將耗盡,可能崩跌到負數
1.媒體來源:CNN
2.記者署名:Matt Egan
3.完整新聞標題:
The world could soon run out of space to store oil.
That may plunge prices below zero
全世界儲存原油的空間即將耗盡
石油價格可能崩跌到零元之下
4.完整新聞內文:
世界對原油的需求已經消失
馬路是空的，停機坪是滿的，工廠的燈是關的
前所未有的需求崩潰導致原油價格降到18年低點
供給方面，沙烏地阿拉伯跟俄羅斯爆發價格戰
美國的石油公司也不想成為第一個熄燈的供應商
這意味著石油供給出現史詩般的過剩
世界上所有的儲油槽很快就會存滿
路博邁集團的高級能源分析師Jeff Wyll:
市場釋出一個訊號，原油不僅沒有需求，也無處可去
換句話說，倉儲、煉油廠、碼頭、輪船和管線可能會達到極限
據高盛的說法，這是1998年來從未發生的事
事實上，懷俄明州原油最近的報價已經來到每桶負19美分
布倫特原油是在北海的小島上開採，島上還有儲油罐所以相對穩定
但輕原油很多是在海面上開採的，距離陸地500英里
所以價格可能即將達到負數
https://i.imgur.com/I3VmMGu.png
New York (CNN Business)The world's thirst for oil has evaporated.
Highways are empty. Planes are grounded. Factories are dark. The
unprecedented collapse in oil demand has sent crude crashing to 18-year lows.
Supply, on the other hand, remains largely resilient amid a price war between
Saudi Arabia and Russia. US producers don't want to be the first to blink by
turning off production.
That could mean a supply glut so epic that the world will soon run out of
room to store all the unneeded barrels of oil.
"The market is starting to signal that not only is there no demand for this
crude, eventually there could be nowhere for it to go," said Jeff Wyll,
senior energy analyst at Neuberger Berman.
In other words, storage facilities, refineries, terminals, ships and
pipelines eventually could reach capacity -- something that hasn't happened
since 1998, according to Goldman Sachs.
Distressed pricing in some corners of the oil market shows that investors are
starting to price in the risk that might occur soon.
Although headline oil prices such as West Texas Intermediate and Brent are
trading north of $20 a barrel, some regional prices have recently plunged
into single-digit territory. That is especially true for landlocked grades of
crude where access to storage is even trickier.
"Demand is falling so fast relative to supply that very soon many producers'
main issue is not going to be whether they can ensure operating profit but
rather if they can find an outlet for their crude," analysts at JBC Energy
wrote in a report Tuesday.
One storage option: loading all that extra crude onto ships. JBC said about
20% of the global fleet of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) could become
floating storage. But even that would not absorb the surplus.
In April, some 6 million barrels per day of "homeless crude" might literally
have nowhere to go, JBC said, a figure that would rise to 7 million barrels
per day in May.
Oil is really, really, really cheap
Over the last 75 years, inflation-adjusted oil prices have very rarely been
cheaper than today.
Negative oil prices
This oil glut is creating a scenario where some obscure grades of oil already
have actually dropped below zero. For instance, a Wyoming crude grade was
recently bid at negative 19 cents a barrel, Bloomberg News reported last week.
Shrinking storage capacity means that oil producers in some cases have to pay
someone just to take the barrels off their hands.
"The price is trying to go to a level to force companies to keep the oil in
the ground. If it has to go negative to incentivize that behavior, then it
will," said Neuberger's Wyll.
Brent, the global benchmark, is likely protected from this because it's
priced on an island in the North Sea where tank storage is accessible. But
other grades of crude are located far from water.
WTI, however, is 500 miles from water. That's why Goldman's Currie said WTI,
especially WTI Midland, and Canada's Western Canadian Select "can go
negative."
Subzero oil prices are certainly bizarre, but there is some limited
precedence in the energy market.
Last year, US natural gas prices in West Texas traded in negative territory
for more than two weeks because there were not enough pipelines to carry the
gas away, Reuters reported.
'Mother of all market surpluses'
But even then, negative natural gas prices didn't really discourage
production. That's because the West Texas natural gas was largely a byproduct
of oil pumped from the Permian Basin. Oil companies were willing to take a
loss on the natural gas to get what was then a valuable barrel of oil.
With the collapse in oil prices, oil has lost more than two-thirds of its
value since the January peak.
Now, US oil companies are starting to make the painful decision of "shutting
in" production, albeit reluctantly.
Physical constraints have forced at least 900,000 barrels per day of
announced "shut-ins," according to Goldman Sachs, which noted the true number
is likely higher and "growing by the hour."
Rystad Energy said that the "mother of all oil market surpluses" will force
large production shut-ins in April and May. Older, less productive oil wells
will likely shut down first.
Even the strongest US oil companies say they'll scale back spending and
production. Chevron (CVX), for instance, announced plans last week to slash
spending by 30% and lowered its output targets in the Permian by 20%.
Eventually, the industry could lose as much as 5 million barrels per day of
oil supply capacity, Goldman Sachs said.
Will this set the stage for an oil shock?
Of course, the weak demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic won't last
forever.
Eventually, airlines will take to the air again and start buying jet fuel.
American drivers will buy more gasoline as they get back to work.
But by that point the oil industry might not be producing as much oil as
before because wells shut down. Today's oil glut may suddenly turn into
tomorrow's oil scarcity, pushing prices "far above" $55 next year, Goldman
Sachs commodities head Jeffrey Currie said.
"This will ultimately create an inflationary oil supply shock of historic
proportions," Currie wrote.
5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址):
https://tinyurl.com/vbskzpp
6.備註:
所以這樣去加油可以領錢嗎?
--
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