Re: [新聞] 經濟學人：台灣選出獨立傾向的總統將使亞太情勢更危險消失

看板Gossiping作者et134226時間10年前 (2016/01/10 13:03)推噓37(39推 2噓 21→)

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※ 引述《skyjade (And Rohan will answer!)》之銘言： : ※ 引述《F7 ( IL DIVO)》之銘言： : 原文是這篇 : http://goo.gl/9J0Jeo : A Tsai is just a Tsai : UNDETERRED by the rain, the crowd leaps to its feet shouting “We’re going : to win” in Taiwanese as their presidential candidate, Tsai Ing-wen, begins : her stump speech. Some rattle piggy banks to show that their party, the : Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), relies on, and serves, the little guy—as : opposed to the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), backed by businesses and fat cats and : one of the world’s richest political institutions. Taiwan’s voters go to : the polls on January 16th in what is likely to prove a momentous election : both for the domestic politics on the island and for its relations with the : Communist government in China that claims sovereignty over it. Eight years of : uneasy truce across the Taiwan Strait are coming to an end. 蔡英文只是蔡英文不被風雨所阻擾，群眾們疾呼：我們將贏得這次台灣總統選舉。蔡英文開始她的競選演講。群眾用小豬撲滿顯示，對DPP依靠與服務百姓的支持，而目前執政的KMT，則由眾多企業與肥貓，甚至是世界最多的黨產支撐。一月十六日的大選，將證明這塊小島的民意以及未來與中國共產黨政府的關係。這可能使過去八年來，令人不安的台海互信邁向終點。 : Since taking office in 2008, the outgoing president, Ma Ying-jeou, has : engineered the deepest rapprochement between Taiwan and China ever seen, : signing an unprecedented 23 pacts with the mainland, including a partial : free-trade agreement. It culminated in an unprecedented meeting in November : between Mr Ma and Xi Jinping, China’s president, in Singapore. 自從2008年，馬芙丸就汲汲於與中國建立和解關係，簽署了前所未見的23條協約，包含自由貿易協定，最終與中國國家主席習進平，在新加坡進行了前所未有的會議。 : But if the : rapprochement under Mr Ma was a test of whether closer ties would help China’ : s long-term goal of peaceful unification, it failed. For the past six months : Ms Tsai, whose party leans towards formal independence for Taiwan, has been : miles ahead in the polls, with the support of 40-45% of voters. The KMT’s : Eric Chu has 20-25% and another candidate, James Soong, a former KMT : heavyweight, about 15%. Taiwanese polls can be unreliable, and many voters : are undecided. But if Mr Chu were to win, it would be a shock. 然而這個馬先生一手主導的兩岸和解，被視為是對於兩岸和平統一的測試。而馬失敗了，過去六個月，蔡女士，帶領著傾向支持台灣獨立的政黨，離大選只剩沒多久，近乎40~ 45%的選民支持蔡女士。而KMT的Eric朱僅有20~25%支持度，另一位James宋，前KMT重量級人物，則有15%支持度。雖然台灣民調可能不真實，而且許多人尚未表態。但如果朱先生勝選，那還真是令人吃驚。 : Taiwan elects its parliament, the Legislative Yuan, on the same day. That : race is closer. But the DPP’s secretary-general, Joseph Wu, thinks his party : can win it too, either outright or in coalition with two smaller parties—and : the polls suggest he may be right. If so, it would be the first time any : party other than the KMT has controlled the country’s legislature since the : KMT fled to the island at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. : The election result will have regional consequences, but the campaign itself : is being fought on livelihood issues. The economy appears to have grown by : only 1% in 2015, less than in 2014. Taiwan is doing worse than other : export-oriented Asian economies such as South Korea. Salaries are stagnant, : youth unemployment is up and home ownership is beyond the reach of many. One : study found that the capital, Taipei, has become one of the world’s : costliest cities relative to income, with the ratio of median house prices to : median household income rising from 8.9 in 2005 to 15.7 in 2014—nearly twice : the level of London. Concerns like these have dented the KMT’s reputation : for economic competence. 台灣也將在同日進行國會改選。但是勝負將較為接近，DPP秘書長Joseph吳，認為DPP也能於國會大選中獲勝。不論是直接或是與其他小黨結盟，民調也顯示類似的結果，如果如此，這將是自1949年國共內戰，KMT慘敗逃往台灣後，首次失去國會的控制權。雖然選舉有區域性的差異，但主要問題仍著墨於經濟，2015年僅成長1%，遠少於2014。台灣經濟表現遜於亞洲出口導向國家，如南韓。薪資不漲，年輕族群的失業率，居住正義的不公。一項調查顯示，台北市是世界上數一數二的居不易城市。將房屋價格中位數除以家庭中位收入，其比值自2005年的8.9暴漲至2014年的15.7。幾乎是倫敦的兩倍。類似這樣的擔憂，大幅地削弱了KMT的聲譽。 : Self-inflicted wounds have not helped either. Most of the KMT’s bigwigs : refused to run for president, fearing defeat. So its chairman, Eric Chu, put : forward Hung Hsiu-chu, whose pro-China views proved so extreme that they : nearly split the party. Mr Chu ditched her just months before the poll and : ran for president himself. Ms Hung’s backers, many of them old-guard KMT : voters, may abstain in protest. The party which for decades has dominated : politics faces humiliation. 來自KMT內部的衝突也對事情沒有幫助，多數的國民黨大老拒絕參選，因為怕輸。所以黨主席Eric朱，推出了洪秀柱女士為參選人。但親中國的柱柱姊，幾乎使KMT分裂。為此，Eric朱在選前將洪換下，由他親自競選。許多支持柱柱姊的老國民黨員十分不滿，將以拒絕投票的方式，羞辱這個執政已數十年的政黨。 : That would have profound implications for China. For years, the Chinese : Communist Party’s policy towards Taiwan has been based on patience and : economic integration. But the election campaign suggests that integration is : a liability and that time may not be on China’s side. In 1992, according to : the Election Studies Centre at National Chengchi University in Taipei, 18% of : respondents identified themselves as Taiwanese only. A further 46% thought of : themselves as both Taiwanese and Chinese. Today 59% call themselves : Taiwanese, while 34% identify as both—ie, very few consider themselves : Chinese first and foremost. 這將對中國產生影響。數年來，中國共產黨政權對台灣的政策，一直是建立於耐心與經濟整合。但此次大選顯示，時間可能不會站在中國這邊。1992年，僅有18%的受訪者意自認是台灣人，46%則自認既是台灣人也是中國人。今日，有59%自認為台灣人，而僅有34%認為自己兩者都是。更少的人則自認為中國人。 : Patience doesn’t pay : Among 20- to 29-year-olds, three-quarters think of themselves as Taiwanese. : For them China is a foreign country, and the political ripples of this change : are now being felt. In early 2014 students occupied parliament for three : weeks in a protest against a proposed services deal with China. This proved : to be a turning point: the KMT went on to be thrashed in municipal elections : in late 2014. Some of the student leaders have formed their own party to : contest the legislative election, joining 17 other groups and 556 candidates, : who range from a heavy-metal front man to a former triad crime boss. : The last time Taiwan chose a DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, in 2000, : cross-strait tensions escalated. Given China’s increasing assertiveness in : the region under Mr Xi, things could be even more dangerous now. China has : been piling pressure on Ms Tsai. Mr Xi says he wants a “final resolution” : of differences over Taiwan, adding that this is not something to leave for : the next generation. China is demanding that Ms Tsai approve the “1992 : consensus”, a formula by which China and the KMT agreed there was only one : China—but disagreed about what that meant in practice. Ms Tsai has long said : no such consensus exists, though when asked about it in a presidential : debate, she called it “one option”. 耐心沒有收獲在20~29歲族群之間，3/4的人認為自己是台灣人。對它們而言，中國只是個外國。而這種氛圍已逐漸被感受到。2014年初，學生占領了立法院三星期，以對中國的協議抗議。事實證明，這是一個轉折點，2014年末，一些學生領袖組織了政黨，以參加這次超過556位候選人，分屬17個不同政黨的國會大選。包括重金屬歌手與黑社會大哥。2000年時，人民選擇DPP候選人陳水扁先生為總統。升高了海峽緊張。中國在區域的力量不停上升，在習的主政下，事情可能更糟糕。中國一直感覺到蔡英文的壓力，習要求兩岸分治須有最終結果，且不是需交棒給下一代的事情。中國一直要求蔡英文承認92共識，即KMT與共產黨政權各說各話的協議。蔡英文女士認為根本沒有這個協議，即使到了總統辯論會，她把這個共識稱為"一個選項"。 : Ms Tsai is a very different figure from Mr Chen, who delighted in provoking : China (and was later jailed for corruption). She is a low-key, : English-educated lawyer schooled in international trade rather than in the : rhetoric of Taiwanese nationalism. She has gone out of her way to assure : China and America, Taiwan’s guarantor, that she backs the status quo and : will be cautious. Many of her proposals, such as that Taiwan should expand : its soft power through non-governmental organisations, seem designed to be : uncontroversial. If her party takes control of the legislature, that would : remove a source of instability: conflict with lawmakers made Mr Chen’s : presidency even more unpredictable than it otherwise would have been. : Yet whatever Ms Tsai’s intentions, a lot could go wrong. Taiwanese politics : is famously raucous, and the DPP’s radicals seeking formal independence : might yet cause problems. Mr Xi, in turn, could come under pressure from : military diehards arguing that China has been too patient. In one of the last : foreign-policy vestiges of the “one China” idea, China and Taiwan have : similar claims in the South China Sea, a nerve-racking part of the globe. If : a new government in Taiwan starts tinkering with its stance on the sea, China : might easily take offence. The election of an independence-leaning president : comes at a dangerous moment. 蔡英文與扁相較，是個很不同的人物。後者挑釁中國且因貪污入獄。蔡英文是位受過英文教育的律師，教導國際貿易而不是台灣國族主義。她已經出外參訪，保證她將小心翼翼地維持現狀。許多她的提案，如台灣應該藉由NGO發展軟實力，似乎設計的毫無爭議。如果 DPP最終獲得國會多數席次，這將消除不穩定的根源：過去阿扁執政時，來自國會的衝突，使得情況更是混沌不明。如果DPP無法過半，那將可預期過去的情況將重演。然而，無論蔡英文女士的意圖如何，仍有太多地方可出錯。台灣政治以混亂出名，DPP尋求台灣獨立自由的主張，可能造成問題。習可能背負者來自中國軍方鷹派的壓力，認為對台太過耐心。在過去外交遺跡，一個中國政策下，台灣與中國在南中國海有著類似的領土主張。這是全地球最敏感的地區之一，如果新上任的台灣政府，嘗試拙劣修補該區域關係， ^^^^^^^^謝謝SincereBob指正中國很可能會起度爛。選出傾台獨總統的時機相當危險。　 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^謝謝Marking支援 : 沒時間全翻，先翻一段 : 上色那段是說 : 如果民進黨在國會過半，將可避免總統與國會的衝突這個不確定因素 : 陳水扁任內就是因為總統與國會的衝突，使他的整個任期更不可測 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 116.12.139.210 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Gossiping/M.1452402188.A.5AE.html

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ptla45

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狗報不知道翻那啥死人骨頭

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Moritz

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謝謝

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zz45698

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zz45698

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沒錯，終結代管，自決建國

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Luciferspear

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Rowerjacky

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阿就真的是小豬撲滿阿XD

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zz71

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謝謝

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goenitzx

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goenitzx

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黑阿，黑道大哥

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zz45698

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hisayoshi

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謝謝

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zz45698

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※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:17:13

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zz45698

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greedypeople

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Rowerjacky

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Rowerjacky

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XDD，一邊吃午餐一邊翻，就掉字了，謝謝你。最後一句好難翻阿 >_< ※ 編輯: et134226 (116.12.139.210), 01/10/2016 13:31:58

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Cityfrighten

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謝謝支持

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Calaglin

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謝謝

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Lenlen

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還有 22 則推文

還有 21 段內文

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jinn

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hlcho

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SincereBob

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JF5385

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SincereBob

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謝謝指教，tinker我嘗試翻譯為"徒勞無功的修補"。我的政黨立場沒有在這邊文章中表現，一切盡力遵照原文直翻。我又不是狗報記者，胡說八道又沒錢領。 Tinker: attempt to repair or improve something in a casual or desultory way, often to no useful effect. 嘗試修補或改進事情，偶而為之或斷斷續續，通常沒有幫助。

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stock481110

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lisia

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OoJudyoO

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