Fw: [閒聊] Albert Pujols
※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板 #1FbvwfEB ]
作者: celipliz (犀利痞子) 看板: MLB
標題: Re: [閒聊] Albert Pujols
時間: Wed Apr 25 14:49:59 2012
※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之銘言：
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/wainwright-and-pujols-rough-starts/
Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking
over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk
rate and power.
普砲打的完全跟期望值差很大，其中保送率跟長打是最令人擔心的
Currently Albert has a career low 7.1% BB%. It is less than half of what it
was just 2 years ago. It might seem that this value is not much of a concern
because he is not being intentionally walked as much. Albert has been
intentionally walked 3.3% of the time over his career. By subtracting out the
intentional walks and the non-intentional intentional walks (IBBump), here
are his walk rates and corrected walk rates over the past 5 years:
普砲打出生涯低點的 7.1% 保送率，甚至是兩年前的一半不到。
雖然可以試著解讀成因為不會被故意保送了，不過減掉故意保送之後長這樣:
( 前者為保送率，後者為修正後之保送率 )
Year: BB%, corrected BB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%
2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
His corrected BB% was similar from 2008 to 2011. This season it has been cut
in half. He is definitely not being walked as much.
看到了吧，真的保送變少了。
A reason he may be seeing more strikes is that pitchers don’t fear him as
much as they did in the past because of a lack of power (0 HRs in 2012). Here
are his ISOs from 2009 to 2012:
其中一個原因很可能是因為長打能力退化，今年0HR，所以投手不怕他了。
以下為近四年的ISO:
Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
2012: 0.108
It would be nice to have Hit FX data to see exactly if he has been hitting
the ball weaker or in the air more. GameDay data, while not perfect, does
give us some clues that he is just not getting as much distance behind his
hits. Here are his 2011 and 2012 batted ball locations from texasleaguers.com:
我們來看看他的打擊圖，是否真的長打退化了。
以下為 2011 / 2012 的比較圖，證明最近打擊出去的球，落點真的離本壘板比較近了
2011:http://bit.ly/K8Gl5A / 2012: http://bit.ly/K13cAD
So far in 2012, Albert has not even put a ball near the warning track. To
further illustrate the point, here are the average distances of his fly balls
and home runs from 2010 to 2012 as taken from baseballheatmaps.com:
今年到目前為止，普砲連全壘打牆都沾不上邊，
不信你看，以下為近三年的飛球距離平均:
Year: Distance
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
2012: 275 ft
One possible explanation for the drop in power this season is that he is not
yet familiar with the pitchers in the AL. MGL over at The Book Blog looked at
how hitters and pitchers did once they became more familiar with each other.
Here is his conclusion:
.. there is a large advantage to the batter when he has faced
a pitcher a lot in the last year.
Albert should expect to hit better as he becomes more familiar with the
pitchers in the AL.
把他解讀成為，普砲對AL不熟吧。
研究指出，打者跟投手熟了之後，結論是 ..通常對打著的優勢較高。
所以普砲跟美聯投手熟了之後，應該會慢慢變回普神。
Albert is displaying a lack of power that has been trending down the last few
years. On top of the power decline, he is not walking as much even when IBB
are taken into account. I would not recommend selling on him just yet. He
should see an increase in production as he becomes more familiar with AL
pitching. It might be a time to see if his owners are getting impatient with
him and try to buy low.
這段在講FB，跟MLB版旨無關我就不翻了
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 184.65.138.179
推
04/25 14:54, , 1F
04/25 14:54, 1F
推
04/25 14:54, , 2F
04/25 14:54, 2F
→
04/25 14:56, , 3F
04/25 14:56, 3F
→
04/25 14:56, , 4F
04/25 14:56, 4F
→
04/25 14:57, , 5F
04/25 14:57, 5F
→
04/25 14:58, , 6F
04/25 14:58, 6F
推
04/25 14:59, , 7F
04/25 14:59, 7F
→
04/25 14:59, , 8F
04/25 14:59, 8F
→
04/25 14:59, , 9F
04/25 14:59, 9F
推
04/25 15:00, , 10F
04/25 15:00, 10F
推
04/25 15:01, , 11F
04/25 15:01, 11F
→
04/25 15:02, , 12F
04/25 15:02, 12F
→
04/25 15:04, , 13F
04/25 15:04, 13F
推
04/25 15:22, , 14F
04/25 15:22, 14F
→
04/25 15:44, , 15F
04/25 15:44, 15F
推
04/25 15:45, , 16F
04/25 15:45, 16F
推
04/25 15:51, , 17F
04/25 15:51, 17F
推
04/25 15:53, , 18F
04/25 15:53, 18F
推
04/25 15:55, , 19F
04/25 15:55, 19F
推
04/25 16:01, , 20F
04/25 16:01, 20F
推
04/25 16:02, , 21F
04/25 16:02, 21F
推
04/25 16:16, , 22F
04/25 16:16, 22F
推
04/25 16:20, , 23F
04/25 16:20, 23F
推
04/25 16:21, , 24F
04/25 16:21, 24F
推
04/25 16:30, , 25F
04/25 16:30, 25F
推
04/25 16:31, , 26F
04/25 16:31, 26F
推
04/25 16:33, , 27F
04/25 16:33, 27F
推
04/25 16:43, , 28F
04/25 16:43, 28F
推
04/25 16:45, , 29F
04/25 16:45, 29F
推
04/25 16:46, , 30F
04/25 16:46, 30F
推
04/25 16:48, , 31F
04/25 16:48, 31F
→
04/25 16:48, , 32F
04/25 16:48, 32F
推
04/25 16:51, , 33F
04/25 16:51, 33F
推
04/25 16:55, , 34F
04/25 16:55, 34F
→
04/25 16:56, , 35F
04/25 16:56, 35F
推
04/25 16:57, , 36F
04/25 16:57, 36F
推
04/25 16:57, , 37F
04/25 16:57, 37F
推
04/25 16:57, , 38F
04/25 16:57, 38F
推
04/25 16:58, , 39F
04/25 16:58, 39F
推
04/25 17:00, , 40F
04/25 17:00, 40F
→
04/25 17:00, , 41F
04/25 17:00, 41F
推
04/25 17:05, , 42F
04/25 17:05, 42F
推
04/25 17:15, , 43F
04/25 17:15, 43F
推
04/25 17:39, , 44F
04/25 17:39, 44F
推
04/25 17:49, , 45F
04/25 17:49, 45F
→
04/25 17:50, , 46F
04/25 17:50, 46F
推
04/25 18:00, , 47F
04/25 18:00, 47F
推
04/25 18:01, , 48F
04/25 18:01, 48F
推
04/25 18:01, , 49F
04/25 18:01, 49F
推
04/25 18:06, , 50F
04/25 18:06, 50F
→
04/25 18:06, , 51F
04/25 18:06, 51F
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
※ 轉錄者: spree8 (59.125.134.184), 時間: 04/25/2012 18:08:49
推
04/25 19:16, , 52F
04/25 19:16, 52F
→
09/11 09:42, , 53F
09/11 09:42, 53F
討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 2 之 3 篇)：
閒聊
9
19