Re: [外電] Are the Bulls simply lucky for landi …
今年三月出的舊文 剛好沒事翻翻bluesky少翻的一些部份
本篇談論因果論 (Karma) 錯失很多好球員 但最後幸運眷顧選秀選到Rose
Yes and no. I wanted to discuss this thought, because I hear it frequently.
The Bulls are lucky to have landed Rose in an absolute sense. Of course they
are. The Spurs were lucky to have landed Tim Duncan when they were an elite
team and Robinson blew his knee out. The Lakers were lucky the Grizzlies
traded Pau Gasol, that Shaq came to LA before RFA, and that Kobe Bryant somehow
fell to 13 and was available for Vlade Divac.
是與否 我想討論大家常說公牛幸運拿到Rose 馬刺也很幸運再大羅膝傷
但馬刺還是elite team的時候拿到Duncam 湖人很幸運的交易到Gasol
Shaq在RFA之前轉去熱火 Kobe也不之為啥掉到13順位 然後跟Divac交易 到湖人
The Celtics were lucky that Kevin McHale, GM of the Timberwolves, was a former
Celtic and preferred to work with them on the Garnett trade. The Heat are
lucky that the Pistons took Darko Milicic instead of Dwyane Wade, or else the
trinity would never have ended up there.
超賽夠幸運 當時灰狼的GM是前賽爾克人Kevin McHale
熱火也很幸運當時的活塞選了Milicic 而非Wade 不然今年就沒有三王的合體
Since the best teams in the NBA are driven by elite superstars, the best teams
always have a fair amount of luck involved in their creation. Maybe it's just
the ping pong balls, maybe it's a random luck that allowed them to even get to
the ping pong ball spot in the first place. It could be a rule change or
making a move just before a rule change.
最好的球隊都是要有超級明星的帶領 最好的一些球隊
常常在得到球員的過程中有很多的幸運成分
也許只是那些乒乓球 也許他們只是剛好幸運的拿到那些 乒乓球號碼
There is always an element of chance when a team falls into a great player, and
while the 1.7% chance to land Rose seems like longer luck than most, it only
begins to make up for the unfathomable bad luck the Bulls have had since
Jordan's retirement (which I suppose you could say only begun to make up for
the luck of drafting Jordan falling to third in the first place, of course that
was making up for the bad luck in our just missing out on Magic Johnson).
總是有一些微小的機會 讓一個優秀的球員降臨球隊
1.7趴的機會 讓Rose來到公牛隊 你需要很巨大的幸運
從Jordan退休之後 公牛就一直有著壞運氣
或是你可以說 因為Jordan掉到第三順位 早已帶給公牛足夠的好運了
I don't believe luck is cyclical, but if you roll the dice often enough, you
eventually get the ever elusive yahtzee, and the Bulls were simply due for
something to fall in their direction.
我不相信風水輪流轉的理論 但是當你投擲骰子夠多次
你最終會得到 yahtzee (五個骰子都同點數)
公牛只是剛好輪到他們有好得手氣了....
Let's take a look at the Bulls luck since Jordan's retirement.
看看從jordan退休之後公牛的運勢
The lockout season and new CBA
休賽季 跟新的CBA
Jerry Krause had positioned the Bulls to have basically no money on the books
at all heading into the following season, and it was one of the best free agent
classes in the history of the league. At the time, there was no maximum
salary for players, and the Bulls were expected to outbid other teams on their
top two choices, Tim Duncan and Tracy McGrady.
Jerry Krause讓我們在面臨到歷史上最佳(之一)的選秀年時有充足的資金
在那時候，個別球員並沒有薪資上限，公牛預期會在與其他隊伍競爭TD與TMAC時勝出。
They also had incoming draft picks Ron Artest and Elton Brand.
公牛也有即將到來的阿泰與名牌的順位籤。
If the new CBA doesn't come in and put a cap on individual player salaries, the
Bulls likely land Tim Duncan, however, the new rules make it so that Duncan can
make more money with the Spurs than Bulls. If the Bulls landed Duncan, they
would have also landed another top tier FA, because they would have had a legit
superstar.
如果新的CBA沒有在那時候限制個別球員的薪水，公牛將會贏來TD，但是新的規定讓TD
在馬刺可以獲得比在公牛更高的薪水，如果那時候我們獲得TD，我們也會簽下一排的
頂級FA，因為我們有一個正統的超級球星。
You're talking about a team being rebuilt with Duncan, McGrady, Artest, and
Brand as it's core. Does that team win titles? It probably does. If the
CBA was negotiated one year later, the Bulls might have won multiple titles
immediately after the Jordan era.
我們現在討論的可是一個以TD、TNAC、阿泰與名牌做為核心來重建的球隊。
這樣的球隊會贏得總冠軍嗎？如果CBA是晚一年談判的話，公牛可能會在喬神時代結束
之後馬上又獲得幾座總冠軍。
The new CBA in 2005
The Bulls have the #2 pick in the 2006 draft, the pick that should have been
Kevin Durant. Unfortunately, Kevin Durant is forced to go to college for a
year because of the CBA that was renegotiated that summer. If that CBA were
drafted simply one year later, the Bulls would be headlined by Kevin Durant
right now.
公牛在2006年有第二順位的籤，本來應該是會選到KD的，但是因為那一年有CBA談判所以
KD去念大學避風頭了，不然我們現在的頭條將會是以KD為標題。
We'd have missed out on Rose of course, but we'd have had a damn elite team
anyway, and we wouldn't think much about missing out on Rose like we don't
think much about missing out on Blake Griffin.
假使沒有CBA我們就會選到KD，而我們就不會選到Rose，但是不論如何我們都會有一支好
球隊，就像我們不會因為選了Rose而失去選Griffin的機會而難過一般。
Now, I'd rather have Rose than Durant right now, but I doubt any of us would be
complaining about a team with Kevin Durant on it.
現在，我會寧可要Rose而非KD，但是我想也不會有一支球隊會因為擁有KD而抱怨。
The Bulls had tons of lotto picks, but never high enough in the right draft
公牛有很多的樂透選秀籤 但偏偏都不夠高來選中對的球員
There weren't tons of superstars entering the league in most of the Bulls down
years, and we never had the right pick at the right time.
那幾年公牛戰績不好的年份 有超多的超級球星進入NBA
但我們總是沒有好的選秀順位
2000: We have #4 and #8 in one of the worst drafts ever 超爛選秀年
2001: We have #2 and #4 in one of the worst drafts ever (though we miss Pau
Gasol at #3 for Tyson Chandler) 爛選秀年 第三順位是Gasol剛好錯過
2002: We have #2 and get Jay Williams (miss Ming by 1) and he ends his career
with a motorcycle accident Jay Williams後來車禍報銷 第一順位是姚明
2003: Imagine if we had our picks of any of the last three years here? But
no, we pick this season to win 30 games and get #7, miss out on LeBron,Wade,
Melo, and Bosh 前三季好順位 卻僅贏30場 拿到第七順位 三王跟甜瓜都missed
2004: Miss out on Dwight Howard by two picks 差Howard差兩個順位
2005: no first 無第一輪順位
2006: Screwed by Durant rule, and we fubar the draft Durant多待一年
2007: Grab Noah at #9 第九順位拿到Noah
2008: Grab Rose 拿到D. Rose
Really, the Bulls draft luck up until the point where they grab Noah / Rose was
simply abysmally bad. It wasn't that they drafted poorly (outside of Krause's
decision to take Chandler over Gasol and Paxson taking a risk on Tyrus's upside
vs Roy/Aldridge's safety), but it was never the right place at the right time.
They just had the wrong picks in the wrong years, and when they hit on a
player who has legit star potential, he ends his career in an motorcycle
accident after one season.
真的，公牛的選秀運在選到Noah跟Rose之前都差到XX。不是說公牛選得很爛，而是總是在
不對的時間擁有好的籤，好不容易選到了有正統球星潛力的球員時，卻在一個球季之後因
為摩托車的意外而結束生涯。(這故事大家知道吧)
I know people love to blame GarPax for the lack of trades the Bulls have made,
and their inability to bring in a superstar, but they never had the right
package at the right time. The Bulls offered Tyson Chandler, Luol Deng and a
#1 for Kevin Garnett back when those were valuable trade assets, and Minnesota
said no thanks, only to trade him for Al Jefferson and chips later.
本來要拿泰山、滷蛋跟狀元籤去換KG，但被打槍，人家寧可要Al Jefferson跟一堆
洋芋片。
They offered about Gordon, Nocioni (when they had strong value) and a pick for
Pau Gasol only to see him get traded for a heap of crap and two future rolls of
toilet paper. In both years, the Bulls made offers that exceeded what the
player actually went for one year later, but the Bulls offer the following year
in each case wasn't as appealing due to a change in the player or his contract.
當Gordon、Nocioni賣相還不錯的時候要拿他們跟一個選秀權去換砲枷鎖也被打槍，但是
砲枷鎖卻被拿去換一堆垃圾跟兩捲衛生紙。這兩年，公牛都拿出比這些球員後來所拿的
合約價值更高的代價去跟人家洽談，但是公牛在這兩個案例裡面所提出的條件後來因為
球員本身的關係 或是合約關係都沒有成功!
Things were always close to coming together, but never quite there.
事情總是很接近了，但卻沒辦法完成。
So were the Bulls lucky to get Rose?
所以，公牛拿到玫瑰是幸運的嗎？
Hell yes. I'm getting a 1.7% tattoo if the Bulls win a title with Rose.
當然是！如果公牛在Rose的帶領下拿到總冠軍，我就要去刺一個1.7％圖案的刺青。
However, after some crazy twists of fate over the previous decade, I'm taking
it and not apologizing for it. The Bulls haven't had a ton of luck since the
Jordan retirement, no reason to act like we didn't deserve some the one time it
rolls are way.
但是呢，在過去十年命運的扭轉下，我會享受這好運而不會感到愧疚。
公牛從喬神退休之後就沒啥好運氣了，當好運來臨時，沒必要表現得假道學。
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※ 編輯: eertllams 來自: 131.193.246.51 (06/02 00:19)
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