Re: [討論] Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang

看板CMWang作者shirlyfen (null)時間16年前 (2008/03/11 23:08)推噓12(12推 0噓 0→)

留言12則, 12人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

※ 引述《yyhong68 (come every now and then)》之銘言： : 這一篇是來自 Replacement Level Yankees Weblog : SG寫的文章，原打算不要全PO，但後來還是覺得這麼做 : 請注意這篇的作者是來自 Replacement Level Yankees Weblog 的SG : 若版主覺得這樣轉貼不妥，敬請刪除 : : 球季前的文章，看看該球員一些過去的成績與數據所呈現的資訊及 : 新球季的可能預測與展望 : 之前已經也寫完野手了，最新一篇是投手， : 由於小王可能排開幕戰投手，所以作者在關於投手的第一篇就是寫王建民 : Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang : With the position players done and accounted for, it's time to move on to : the Yankee pitching. The numbers show that the position players should do : their part to make the Yankees a contender, so it's up to the pitching to : not hamper that. First up, it's the Yankees likely opening day starter, : Chien-Ming Wang. 2008年展望 - 王建民現在該輪到洋基投手了。數據顯示每個位置的球員對球隊競爭力都有貢獻，所以投手要作的是不要阻礙球隊的勝利。首先，來看看洋基開幕日可能的投手─王建民。 : 2007 : After a solid regular season that saw Wang rank as one of the top 15 starting : pitchers in the American League by most measures came a disastrous postseason : that was the chief reason the Yankees did not advance out of the ALDS. : Unfortunately, this tarnished what was an overall good season and led to : many Yankee fans wanting him shipped out for pennies on the dollar because : he's teh unclutch. 2007年王用堅強的固定先發表現使自己名列美國聯盟前15名頂尖投手群中，但他災難性的季後賽是洋基無法晉級的主因。不幸地，這成為一整個好球季的汙點，並讓許多洋基迷希望他被便宜交易出去。 : Wang is the type of player that can't be easily projected. To this point in : his career Wang has done three things well. He suppresses HRs, he walks : fewer batters than average, and he allows a lower percentage of hits on : balls in play than the average. The walk rate is a skill that can't be : taken away from him. HRs allowed are normally a function of a pitchers' : fly ball percentage, usually around 11%. In his career, Wang is around : 7.7%. The league average BABIP is around .304, Wang's career mark is .287. : So when you regress HR rate and hit rate towards league average as most : projection systems do, Wang gets penalized more than most pitchers. His : low K rate doesn't really impact his projections as much as assumed. 王是那種難以被輕易預測的球員。在這點上，王的職業生涯有三件事作得很好。他壓低全壘打數、比平均更低的四壞率，被打擊率也比平均低─看王的表現不能忽視四壞率。另外全壘打數一般而言是投手飛球率的函數，平均大約在11%，而王的飛球率為7.7%。大聯盟平均BABIP為0.304，王的數據是0.287。因此，當你將全壘打率和被打擊率作迴歸─大多數預測系統如此運作，王被低估的程度比大部分的投手要嚴重。他的低三振率帶來的負面影響並沒有像預測估計的那麼多。 : Regarding the HR rate, I'm not so sure that we should assume that all fly : balls are equal. I don't know if anyone has ever studied the correlation : between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting : study. Regarding BABIP, there is at least some anecdotal evidence(註1) that : Wang allows more easily fieldable ground balls, as do most ground ball : pitchers. 關於全壘打率，我不確定是否我們應該假設所有的飛球都是一樣的。我不知道是否有人研究過「每飛球的全壘打率」和「滾地球率」之間的相關，這應該是一個有趣的研究。關於BABIP，至少有一些證據顯示王被擊出的滾地球比一般滾地球更容易防守，滾地球投手都是這樣的。 : Wang exceeded his projections pretty significantly in 2007. 在2007年，王的表現大大超越了預測。 : Chien-Ming Wang : ERA G IP Hit R ER HR BB K : Avg Proj 4.17 29 181 199 91 84 16 48 78 : Actual 3.70 30 199 199 84 82 9 59 104 : Difference 113% 105% 110% : RSAA RSAA/200 H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 : Avg Proj 8 8 9.9 0.8 2.4 3.9 : Actual 23 23 9.0 0.4 2.7 4.7 : Difference 276% 276% 110% 195% 89% 121% : RSAA: runs saved above average : RSAA/200: RSAA pro-rated to 200 innings : *All difference are on a rate basis except for G and IP. All percentages : are set so that a percentage better than 100 means the pitcher was better : than expected, and a percentage lower than 100 means they were worse : (on a rate basis). (解釋數據) : Wang saved 15 runs more than expected compared to average. He allowed 10% : fewer hits than expected, 95% fewer HRs than projected and struck out 21% : more than expected. His walk rate was 11% worse than projected, which : probably goes in hand with him experimenting with more pitches and his : improved strikeout rate. 王的RSAA比預測的少了15。他被擊出的安打比預測少了10%、全壘打少了95%、三振率高了 21%。他的四壞率比預估的高了11%，這大概是因為他試驗投更多球並改善三振率。 : On the surface, Wang's 2007 was a carbon copy of his 2006. 19-6 with a 3.63 : ERA vs. 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. If you look at the numbers in a little more : detail there are some differences though, primarily in his splits. I've : calcualted the splits below from Retrosheet's(註2) play by play data, so they : may differ slightly from splits you may see elsewhere. 表面上，王的2007年球季是2006年的翻版─19勝6敗、防禦率3.63對比19勝7敗、防禦率3.7。但如果你稍為仔細注意數據，就會發現不同，特別是一些切割性的數據。我用不同方式計算一些切割性數據，所以以下的數字會跟其他地方能看到的不同。 : Split PA AB 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP K : Vs LHB 429 393 77 25 3 7 34 2 34 : Vs RHB 389 359 69 13 3 2 24 6 70 : Total 818 752 146 38 6 9 58 8 104 : Split AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS s F% L% G% P% : Vs LHB .285 .345 .417 .762 .073 17% 25% 55% 3% : Vs RHB .242 .301 .312 .613 .080 15% 18% 63% 3% : Total .265 .324 .367 .691 .038 16% 22% 58% 3% : OPS s: OPS sigma : F%: Fly ball % : L%: Line drive % : G%: Groundball % : P%: Popup % : Contrast that to Wang's splits in 2005 and 2006. : Split PA AB 1B 2B 3B HR BB HBP K : Vs LHB 625 584 112 32 3 11 40 1 48 : Vs RHB 737 693 148 29 1 10 37 7 75 : Total 1362 1277 260 61 4 21 77 8 123 : Split AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS s F% L% G% P% : Vs LHB .271 .318 .392 .711 .066 16% 16% 63% 4% : Vs RHB .271 .315 .359 .674 .056 17% 15% 65% 3% : Total .271 .316 .374 .691 .030 16% 16% 64% 4% : Lefties hit Wang much harder in 2007. Their line drive percentage went from : 16% to 25% which led to a higher batting average. In 2005-2006, Wang walked : 6.4% of the lefties he faced and struck out 7.7%. In 2007 he walked 7.9% of : the lefties he faced and fanned 7.9%. For righties he went from striking out : 10.2% in 2005 and 2006 to 18.0% in 2007, with his walk rate going from 5% to : 6.2%. These numbers tell me that Wang was making adjustments in 2007, and : it'll be interesting to see what that means for 2008. 左打在2007年對王打得更順手了。他們的平飛球率從16%上升到25%，使的被打擊率升高。在2005-2006年間，王保送6.4%、三振7.7%的左打。在2007年他保送7.9%、三振7.9%。而右打，2005和2006的三振率是10.2%，到了2007年成長為18%，同時保送率從5%增加至 6.2%。這些數字告訴我一件事─王在2007年調整自己。觀察2008年球季將是件有趣的事情。 : 2008 : As Wang continues to perform, the projection systems are starting to fall : in line. 2008年王繼續上場，預測出來了。 : Projection G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP : chone 30 30 189 217 99 91 14 55 96 4.33 4.02 : marcel 28 28 181 184 81 77 11 53 92 3.83 3.85 : pecota 29 29 178 200 97 87 14 59 95 4.37 4.16 : zips 30 30 200 213 95 87 13 53 87 3.92 3.97 : cairo 30 30 197 201 87 84 11 54 89 3.84 3.84 : average 29 29 189 203 92 85 13 55 92 4.05 3.97 : Projection RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR : chone 3 22 7 23 : marcel 13 31 10 25 : pecota 2 20 4 19 : zips 12 32 8 26 : cairo 14 33 11 28 : average 9 28 8 24 (預測) : The projection systems see Wang around a 4 ERA which would make him about : a win better than average, or three wins better than a replacement level : starter. Here's his range of CAIRO projections. 預測系統說王的防禦率大約是4，勝投會比平均數字高，或者比replacement level投手多出三場的勝投。已下是他的CAIRO預測 : CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP : 80% 30 30 197 187 78 75 8 47 98 3.42 3.42 : 65% 30 30 197 194 82 79 9 50 94 3.63 3.63 : Baseline 30 30 197 201 87 84 11 54 89 3.84 3.84 : 35% 30 30 197 208 92 89 13 58 84 4.05 4.06 : 20% 30 30 197 215 96 93 14 61 80 4.26 4.27 : CAIRO % RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR : 80% 23 43 20 37 : 65% 18 38 16 33 : Baseline 14 33 11 28 : 35% 9 29 6 23 : 20% 5 24 2 19 (數據) : Projection systems are meant to be objective, so they just look at the : numbers. Wang's stats belie the quality of his stuff, which we can see : if we use Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X tool.(註3) Wang's sinker averages 94 mph. : That's a dominant pitch, even if it doesn't result in strikeouts. It also : seems like Wang is working on refining his slider and changeup which can only : help him. It'll be interesting to see if new pitching coach Dave Eiland can : help Wang in that regard. 預測系統的用意在於客觀，因此他們只看數字，但王的統計數據掩蓋了他的球質。王的 sinker平均速度94英哩─即使它不能製造三振，這仍是一個具支配力的投球。另一方面王也似乎正在努力讓滑球和變速球更上層樓。觀察新投手教練Dave Eiland是否能在這點幫助王將是一件有趣的事。 : I see Wang somewhere between the 65% and the baseline projection this year, : which is basically what he has done to this point in his career. 我在某處看到人們預測小王介乎65%和底線之間，基本上小王已經辦到了。 : Value : Wang's in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and lost his case with : the Yankees. He'll make $4 million this season which makes him a bargain : compared to what teams pay on the free agent market for a marginal win. 價值王第一年具有仲裁資格，而他輸給球團。這季他將領400萬美元的薪水，相較於球團付給自由球員的價碼，這是一場合算的交易。 : Proj WAR Proj Value Salary Difference : 2.8 $12,397,876 $4,000,000 $8,397,876 (預測價值和實領薪水) : The Yankees have been hesitant to sign Wang to a long-term deal, which : makes sense given his past injury history and the fact that he is difficult : to project. If he continues to perform as he has he's probably worth : around $10-12 million a season. 洋基不願意和王簽長約，看看小王的傷病史和他難以精確預測的表現，這其實合理。如果他繼續保持現在的表現，他也許一季能值1000-1200萬美金。 : Conclusion : I know Wang had a bad postseason, but I'm still a fan. He's probably miscast : as a #1 starter when comparing him to the Johan Santana and Jake Peavy : class of pitcher, but he's been one of the top fourteen pitchers in the AL : the last two years, which by definition makes him a top starter. With : Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain up with the team now, Wang may be : supplanted as the Yankees' "ace" as soon as this season. Then maybe he'll : get credit for being what he is, which is a good solid starter that ANY : team in baseball would be glad to have. 結論我知道王有一個糟糕的季後賽，但我仍是他的粉絲。跟桑塔那和皮維等級的投手比，他大概被誤植成第一號先發。但他在過去兩年已經是美國聯盟頂尖14名投手之一。現在休斯和張伯倫都在隊上，王作為洋基王牌的地位在這季可能很快被取代。然後也許，王會因為作真正的自己而得到掌聲─他是一個任何球隊都樂意擁有的堅強先發投手。 : --Posted at 12:05 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (399) : http://preview.tinyurl.com/2qttv2 : 註1：http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_wang_effect : 註2；http://www.retrosheet.org/ : 註3；http://tinyurl.com/2ydhd9 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 69.137.224.122

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soaringfish

03/11 23:12, , 1^F

03/11 23:12, 1^F

※ 編輯: shirlyfen 來自: 69.137.224.122 (03/11 23:26)

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NIKE74731

03/11 23:27, , 2^F

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DAVIDCHIEN

03/11 23:30, , 3^F