Re: [分享] 用數據看9下case到底是對是錯已回收
上一篇是個大方向、低誤差的計算方式,仍有鄉民認為我忽略太多參數,
真要鉅細靡遺的話,要考慮的參數真的太多太多了,
我只能盡量把可以數字化的數據加入計算。
這篇把鄉民們要求的連續安打、保送後安打這些參數加入計算,
結果依然相同,葉總保送蔣智賢確實有其根據。
(暴投、捕逸、失誤真的很難數據化,小弟不才,望高人指點。)
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假設今天葉總霸氣要求對決蔣智賢,情況有下:
(1)蔣智賢打出全壘打
蔣智賢打出全壘打結束比賽的機率是0.391*10/36=0.109
(2)蔣智賢打出二壘安打,蘇緯達打出安打結束比賽
蔣智賢打出二壘安打的機率是0.391*6/36=0.065,
接著後面的蘇緯達打出安打結束比賽的機率是0.065*0.282=0.018
(3)蔣智賢打出一壘安打,蘇緯達打出長打結束比賽
蔣智賢打出一壘安打的機率是0.391*20/36=0.217,
接著後面的蘇緯達打出長打結束比賽的機率是0.217*(0.282*3/11)=0.017
(4)蔣智賢打出一壘安打,蘇緯達打出一壘安打,鄭達鴻打出安打結束比賽
蔣智賢打出一壘安打的機率是0.391*20/36=0.217,
緊接後面的蘇緯達也打出一壘安打的機率是0.217*(0.282*8/11)=0.045
接著後面的鄭達鴻打出安打結束比賽的機率是0.045*0.309=0.014
所以不保送蔣智賢,兄弟贏的比賽的機率是0.109+0.018+0.017+0.014=0.158
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假設今天葉總選擇性保送蔣智賢,情況有下:
(1)蘇緯達打出全壘打結束比賽
蘇緯達打出全壘打結束比賽的機率是0.282*1/11=0.026
(2)蘇緯達打出二壘安打,蔣智賢飛毛腿衝回本壘
蘇緯達打出二壘安打的機率是0.282*2/11=0.051
(3)蘇緯達打出二壘安打,蔣智賢停留三壘,鄭達鴻打出安打
蘇緯達打出二壘安打的機率是0.282*2/11=0.051
接著後面的鄭達鴻打出安打結束比賽的機率是0.051*0.309=0.016
即便保送鄭達鴻塞滿壘包,王勝偉打出再見安打的機率也一樣(兩人打擊率相同)
(4)蘇緯達打出一壘安打,蔣智賢停留二壘,鄭達鴻打出安打
蘇緯達打出一壘安打的機率是0.282*9/11=0.231
接著後面的鄭達鴻打出安打結束比賽的機率是0.231*0.309=0.071
由於(2)、(3)是互斥事件,我假設蔣跑回來的機率是50%
所以保送蔣智賢,兄弟贏的比賽的機率是0.026+(0.051+0.016)/2+0.071=0.131
結論:
對決蔣智賢0.158 > 保送蔣智賢0.131
保送蔣智賢為了求勝很難理解嗎?
再聲明一次,我是象迷,只是想請象迷們理性看待這個戰術,
還要酸我的隨你便吧,我只是客觀的以數據描述事實,
葉總的保送戰術的確是針對蔣智賢
但不是針對蔣智賢的紀錄!
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※ 編輯: mymyao (119.77.247.100), 04/25/2016 23:31:39
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※ 編輯: mymyao (119.77.247.100), 04/25/2016 23:32:30
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※ 編輯: mymyao (119.77.247.100), 04/25/2016 23:35:55
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