Re: [分享] 用數據看9下case到底是對是錯已回收
先說,我象迷,我在現場當下也是超不開心,
但離開激昂的球場氛圍後,我倒是要幫葉總說幾句話。
到底保送超前分到壘包,是不是真的想求勝?
我們就用數據來驗證。
首先誰都沒料想到投手牽制會失誤,
導致蔣智賢跑到三壘得分大門口,
假設今天沒有那個失誤,
蘇緯達必須敲出長打才能打回致勝分,對吧?
根據CPBL官網數據,昨晚九局下兩位打者的攻擊數據如下:
蔣智賢 打擊率0.391 安打36支 其中10支是全壘打
蘇緯達 打擊率0.282 安打11支 其中3支是長打(2支二壘打、1支全壘打)
所以我們可以客觀的說:
若義大沒保送蔣智賢,蔣智賢一棒結束比賽的機率是0.391*10/36=0.109
若義大保送了蔣智賢,蘇緯達打長打結束比賽的機率是0.282*3/11=0.077
蔣智賢0.109 v.s 蘇緯達0.077
客觀當然選擇保送蔣智賢了(雖然我猜當時葉總也沒算那麼精啦)
結論,由數據可以知道葉總保送蔣智賢的確是為了求勝,
但是球迷能不能接受,又是另外一回事了。
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※ 編輯: mymyao (119.77.247.100), 04/25/2016 20:44:28
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