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作者 larusa 在 PTT [ Sabermetrics ] 看板的留言(推文), 共23則

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[轉錄]Re: [討論] 初登板前三年連莊勝投王

[ Sabermetrics ]0 留言, 推噓總分: 0

作者: Debugger - 發表於 2007/09/12 10:47(16年前)

6^F推larusa:實在很想在發一篇繼續討論下去可是實在是愛睏啊09/12 03:39

7^F→larusa:簡單回應一下您似乎只看到我把勝敗投分出有注意到比例嗎똠09/12 03:40

8^F→larusa:或許我沒特別點出來不過我自己是會這樣看09/12 03:42

9^F→larusa:一個SP要對球隊有貢獻在他主投的比賽能投出多少場次有品09/12 03:43

14^F→larusa:質的比賽的比率也是個重要因素 Neutralize Stat最大的問題09/12 03:43

17^F→larusa:在於他很複雜的計算了很多東西結果只為了算出新的RA09/12 03:47

20^F→larusa:然後將勝率直接用一個只跟他所假設的公式來計算出來09/12 03:48

22^F→larusa:這公式只牽涉到他所假設162場得750分以及所算出投手的RA09/12 03:51

24^F→larusa:前半段在作成績調整這很公平但是投手的勝敗絕對沒辦法09/12 03:52

25^F→larusa:只靠RA就算出來因為棒球比賽的比數又不能累加事實上09/12 03:52

30^F→larusa:勝敗是一場一場決定的結果用一個平均值來決定勝敗09/12 03:55

31^F→larusa:這本身就是一件很弔詭的事09/12 03:56

34^F→larusa:另外你有看到Neutralize Stat以9 adjusted IP 當1 decision09/12 03:56

37^F→larusa:嗎？這對一個吃長局數和一個5-IP SP的投手的差別有多大09/12 03:58

40^F→larusa:你知道嗎？我不喜歡這個公式遠遠超過其他統計數據的原因09/12 04:00

41^F→larusa:因為他用了太多的假設假設本身就可能是巨大的誤差09/12 04:01

42^F→larusa:去B-R把整個Neutralize Stat如何作用看完只有一個想法09/12 04:02

44^F→larusa:感覺就像是男人連番抽插後在女生快要達到高潮前洩了09/12 04:03

46^F→larusa: 虎頭蛇尾09/12 04:04

51^F推larusa:成績有分兩種啊一種是打或投出來的一翻兩瞪眼09/12 04:06

53^F→larusa:另一種是由比賽結果來決定的個人傾向不由平均成績來推估09/12 04:08

55^F→larusa:一場一場拆開來看真的很累不過如果你看膩了統計數據09/12 04:09

57^F→larusa:不妨看看吧09/12 04:10

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