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作者 Phatmen 在 PTT [ Sabermetrics ] 看板的留言(推文), 共11則

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[討論] 上述兩篇轉錄文章

[ Sabermetrics ]5 留言, 推噓總分: +1

作者: JUNstudio - 發表於 2016/09/22 00:55(7年前)

1^F推Phatmen: 這兩篇......問題很大吧.........09/22 01:13

Fw: ◇ [討論] 該出局未出局導致的後續三圍效應

[ Sabermetrics ]0 留言, 推噓總分: 0

作者: JUNstudio - 發表於 2016/09/22 00:52(7年前)

96^F噓Phatmen: 機率沒有在相加的啦................09/10 02:25

102^F噓Phatmen: 你就想你所謂「事件效應」的OBP是1.370 這根本不對啊09/10 02:39

103^F→Phatmen: 如果是期望值就不會用OBP表示，因為OBP的P是percentage09/10 02:39

104^F→Phatmen: 所以這個數字不管怎樣都不會大於1................09/10 02:40

106^F→Phatmen: 不管你加了多少事件，每個打席的上壘率永遠都不會超過109/10 02:41

109^F→Phatmen: 已經得知前一棒因為失誤而上壘的「已知」，是放在條件機09/10 02:41

110^F→Phatmen: 率的分母，而不是直接加在分子09/10 02:41

111^F→Phatmen: 我不否定數據棒球，但我否定沒有sense的數據還長篇大論09/10 02:42

120^F→Phatmen: 你知道改成你說的這些東西後，數據模型意義為何嗎？09/10 02:51

121^F→Phatmen: 如果你想的還是「相加」那就根本沒意義了09/10 02:52

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