Re: [情報] COVID-19 死亡率

看板nCoV2019作者koscew (Defense)時間4年前 (2020/02/23 04:00)推噓6(6推 0噓 11→)

留言17則, 8人參與討論串2/2 (看更多)

以近三天2/19~2/21的總死亡數+總治癒數來看會回推到16~17天前比較接近17天我前面也發了一篇文討論估算死亡率和worldometer網站我覺得如果死亡快於治癒，以死亡數/(死亡數+治癒數)來算會高估如果再考量中國研究有約3天的死亡與出院差距可以用 3天前累積死亡數/(3天前累積死亡數+今天累積治癒數) 來算當然現在數據來源很不準確，很難準確估算以下整理近三天不同算法的死亡率給大家參考地球中國其他 2/19死亡數除以2/19病例數 2.8% 2.8% 0.7% 2/20死亡數除以2/20病例數 2.9% 3.0% 0.9% 2/21死亡數除以2/21病例數 3.0% 3.1% 1.1% 2/19死亡數除以2/06病例數 6.8% 6.8% 2.9% 2/20死亡數除以2/07病例數 6.4% 6.5% 2.9% 2/21死亡數除以2/08病例數 6.3% 6.3% 4.2% 2/19死亡數除以2/02病例數 12.2% 12.3% 4.3% 2/20死亡數除以2/03病例數 10.9% 10.9% 5.9% 2/21死亡數除以2/04病例數 9.6% 9.6% 6.6% 2/19死亡數除以(2/19死亡數+2/19治癒數) 11.3% 11.4% 4.0% 2/20死亡數除以(2/20死亡數+2/20治癒數) 10.7% 10.8% 4.9% 2/21死亡數除以(2/21死亡數+2/21治癒數) 10.0% 10.1% 6.1% 2/16死亡數除以(2/16死亡數+2/19治癒數) 9.7% 9.7% 2.5% 2/17死亡數除以(2/17死亡數+2/20治癒數) 9.1% 9.2% 2.3% 2/18死亡數除以(2/18死亡數+2/21治癒數) 8.7% 8.7% 2.1% 最後還是想強調不管真實總死亡率是1%, 2%, 5%還是10% 最令人擔心的是年紀較大和有慢性病的人中國對2/11時病例的研究用最簡略的算法顯示各年齡死亡率分別為(那時死亡數/病例數是2.5%) 80歲以上 14.8%、70-79: 8.0%、60-69: 3.6%、50-59: 1.3%、49歲以下則不到0.5% 如果有慢性病如心血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸疾病、高血壓和癌症等死亡率則高於6% 我們(49歲以下的人)萬一得病可能死亡率很低但我們的阿公阿嬤爸爸媽媽那一輩萬一得病相對危險許多真的要多提醒年紀較大和有慢性病的人，請他們要特別小心 ※ 引述《switch (pura vita!)》之銘言： : 發稿單位：worldometer : 發稿時間：Feb.18, 2020 : 撰稿者：worldometer : 原文連結：https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ : 摘譯: : 死亡率 (CFR, case fatality rate) 通常是以疫情結束後死亡數/總確診數來計算。但在疫情進行中，使用這個公式來計算，有時可能產生誤導。 : 以 Feb.8 全球累計 37,552 確診, 813 死亡計算。 : deaths/cases = 813/37,552 = 2.2% CFR (有瑕疵的公式) : (註: 以這個公式計算目前中國以外共 1,523 確診, 15死亡, CFR = 0.98%) : 另一種方式是以平均確診到死亡日數 T 來估計，假設 T=7，則 Feb.1 的累計確診數為 14,381，可算出： : Feb.8 deaths/Feb.1 cases = 813/14,381 = 5.7% CFR (正確的公式,假設T=7時) : 在估計 T 時也可以用 (總死亡數+總治癒數) 的數目回推到與累計確診數相近的日期，使用這一公式，推出來的日期約 Jan.26/27 之間，相當於 T=12~13天。如果用這種方式推估T，因為使用相同的邏輯所以得出的結果會與第三種算法相同。即， : CFR = 死亡數/(死亡+治癒數) : 使用 Feb.22 的數字時，該公式算出來的死亡率為： : 2,360 / (2,360 + 20,949) = 10% CFR (worldwide) : 排除中國的病例後為： : 15 / (15 + 236) = 6.0% CFR (outside of China) : 兩者的差異可能來自於中國以外的樣本數較小以及 (輕症與無症狀) 確診比例較高。 : 另外一個可能影響估計的是未被通報的病例，未通報病例會使 CFR 的估計高於實際的數值。例如若武漢有 10,000 名未通報病例，CFR 就會從 10% 降到 7.1%。英國公衛專家在武漢病例只有2,000時，估計有10,000人已遭感染。 : 最後可以參考的是，在 2003 年 SARS 疫情進行中，WHO 當時報告的死亡率為 4% (最低為 3%)，但當疫情結束後，死亡率上升到 9.6%。 : 原文: : How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak : The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who : eventually die from a disease. : Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases. : But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current : novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and : can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a : non negligible proportion of patients." [8] : (Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging : Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology). : In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not : to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a : proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined. : The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be: : CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T} : (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death) : This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths : belonging to the same group of patients. : One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate : T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used : when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR : during an ongoing outbreak). : Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths : (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide. : If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get: : 813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula). : With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case : confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 : cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator: : Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and : estimating T=7). : T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths : + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has : the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January : 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of : estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will : yield the same result. : An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a : variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study : cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably : well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from : admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are : proportional, would be to use the formula: : CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered) : which, with the latest data available, would be equal to: : 2,360 / (2,360 + 20,949) = 10% CFR (worldwide) : If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and : recovered cases, we get: : 15 / (15 + 236) = 6.0% CFR (outside of mainland China) : The sample size above is extremely limited, but this discrepancy in mortality : rates, if confirmed as the sample grows in size, could be explained with a : higher case detection rate outside of China especially with respect to Wuhan, : where priority had to be initially placed on severe and critical cases, given : the ongoing emergency. : Unreported cases would have the effect of decreasing the denominator and : inflating the CFR above its real value. For example, assuming 10,000 total : unreported cases in Wuhan and adding them back to the formula, we would get a : CFR of 7.1% (quite different from the CFR of 10% based strictly on confirmed : cases). : Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College in the UK, said his : “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though : there were only 2,000 confirmed cases at the time. [11] : Without going that far, the possibility of a non negligible number of : unreported cases in the initial stages of the crisis should be taken into : account when trying to calculate the case fatally rate. : As the days go by and the city organized its efforts and built the : infrastructure, the ability to detect and confirm cases improved. As of : February 3, for example, the novel coronavirus nucleic acid testing : capability of Wuhan had increased to 4,196 samples per day from an initial : 200 samples.[10] : A significant discrepancy in case mortality rate can also be observed when : comparing mortality rates as calculated and reported by China NHC: a CFR of : 3.1% in the Hubei province (where Wuhan, with the vast majority of deaths is : situated), and a CFR of 0.16% in other provinces (19 times less). : Finally, we shall remember that while the 2003 SARS epidemic was still : ongoing, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a fatality rate of 4% : (or as low as 3%), whereas the final case fatality rate ended up being 9.6%. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 24.22.247.23 (美國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/nCoV2019/M.1582401621.A.D49.html

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