[討論] 大家真的要小心了

看板medstudent作者antiyahoo (支那人沒有一個是無辜的)時間4年前 (2020/01/24 22:21)推噓16(17推 1噓 26→)

留言44則, 17人參與討論串1/3 (看更多)

剛剛看到一篇paper 以目前情況看恐怕將成為世界瘟疫 PDF Link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/vi ew Archive：https://archive.is/XCERo 主要總結： We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection to be s ignificantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indic ating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for i nfections to stop increasing.? We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identi fied , indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also refl ecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authoriti es in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases i n Wuhan and other areas. If no change in control or transmission happens,When we expect further outbre aks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. in 14 days’ tim e (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shangh ai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2 020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of impor ting infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, an d South Korea. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikel y to be effective in halting transmission across China ; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be red uced by 24.9% on 4 February 希望蔡政府要果斷一點…… -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.12.29.16 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/medstudent/M.1579875684.A.F83.html ※ 編輯: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 臺灣), 01/24/2020 22:22:54 ※ 編輯: antiyahoo (101.12.29.16 臺灣), 01/24/2020 22:24:05

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jeff52

01/24 22:28, 4年前 , 1^F

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jeff52

01/24 22:29, 4年前 , 2^F

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hyperkalemia

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