[心得] 房市不會泡沫,但會軟著陸
此篇針對預售屋 台北市房屋稅造成大量退訂,是特殊情況,和台灣其他縣市狀況不同,
不可相提而論
1,目前開價普偏澎風 就算怒跌1-3成,對這幾年來參與炒房的人來說
,怎麼賣都還是賺。更不用說 買方根本砍不動
2,雖然近期銷售速度趨緩,但對需要業績的上市櫃建商來說,接下來的持續完工交屋將
帶來大筆業績進帳(靠股票就賺了),更別提房市這波大多頭,他們銀彈充足
PS:建商可能撐不過去降價,但至少還要3-5年才可能發生
3,以前業績再好,遇上房市崩盤,大批買方會違約退訂,但是現在台灣狀況跟10年前崩
盤狀況不一樣,低利率的情況下,大多持有房屋的散戶手上都有潛在增值利潤,所以絕對
會力拼獲利實現,不會退訂單(錢放銀行賺不到錢,不如房子留著搏一把)。只要退訂比
率不高,建商口袋深度影響就不大
4,預計會作到10星的總裁只要還在,低利率政策會讓許多散戶就算手邊現金不夠,也會
借錢撐到賣掉,少賺一點沒關係,傻瓜才退訂
一年薪水領不到百萬,房子賣掉賺的錢快多了
根據以上幾點,和這10年來建商大賺特賺的情況下,就算回檔,也是軟着陸
建商只要沒壓力,房價就不可能大崩盤
以上理性分析。歡迎來戰
PS:本人目前三間預售屋,都在台南(交屋前要繳掉3成,和北部流行的交屋前0預付款不
同,有信心七成貸的下來,還能多貸點來投資下ㄧ間)已決定要抱到交屋後,長期投資,
不過我月薪有相當水準,銀彈不夠的人還是建議量力而為
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