[爆料] 要如何解決排名的算計(上)

看板UTAH-JAZZ作者crownwell (維)時間10年前 (2013/11/15 17:44)推噓8(8推 0噓 3→)

留言11則, 9人參與討論串1/1

How I would solve the NBA's tanking problem 要如何解決排名的算計 Under the current system, the NBA's worst team (currently the Jazz) would be rewarded in the lottery. 圖說:在現今的體制下，吊車尾的球隊(現在是爵士隊)會在樂透選秀中獲得最大利益。 One of the most successful coaches of the last 50 years just took a stand against ... losing. OK, perhaps the stand was not that bold. But it was the way Mike Krzyzewski said it that stood out. He was asked about NBA teams tanking their seasons for high draft choices, which they can use on Duke's Jabari Parker, Kansas's Andrew Wiggins, or Kentucky's Julius Randle, all of whom made my hoops-nerd heart skip a few beats Tuesday night. 某位過去五十載都非常成功的教頭站出來反對…輸球，好吧，或許他這樣站出來沒有我們所想的那麼英勇無畏，但就是Coach K讓這議題發燒。當他被問到NBA球隊為樂透選秀犧牲戰績，並可望用在杜克的Jabari Parker、堪薩斯Andrew Wiggins或肯塔基Julius Randle等，這些週二上場讓我這球癡心室顫抖的球員身上時。 Coach K's response: "As an American, I wouldn't like to think that an American team would want to lose or create situations where you would want to lose," Krzyzewski said. "I can't even fathom -- I can't go there. I can't believe that that would happen. Maybe I'm naive and I'm going to go read a fairy tale after this." Coach K這麼回應：「身為一個老美，我不喜歡美國球隊想輸球，或創造輸球的態勢。我甚至不敢揣摸，我不敢相信這會發生，或許是我太傻太天真，我該再去翻翻童話故事書才對。」 The NBA has a tanking problem. As with most NBA problems, it is not quite as big a problem as it appears. To some extent, it is a problem of perception -- there really aren't many teams that you can fairly accuse of tanking. Some of them are just bad. But still, even the perception is a concern for the league. It gets to the heart of the biggest criticism of the NBA: That teams don't take the regular-season as seriously as teams in other sports. 這個排名的算計，跟其他問題比起來，也不算那麼的嚴重，那只是大家觀念上的問題-因為有些隊伍你沒法指控他們有在算計，因為他們實在太鳥了。但即便如此，這觀念上的問題還是被大家所關心，這也是NBA當局招致的批評：我們的球隊對例行賽戰績沒像其他職業運動這麼的當一回事。 I have a solution to this, and it involves a tweak to the lottery. I will explain that in a minute. But first, let's define "tanking". It is one of those terms that people throw around too easily, and we need to distinguish it from patience. PATIENCE: Management understands the team may not win in the short-term, but the long-term plan is more important. TANKING: The team is actively trying to lose. 我有解藥，這也跟樂透籤有關，我馬上為各位做解說，但首先我們先定義「排名的算計」，這太容易被玩弄於股掌之間，我們也要從耐心中去分辨它。耐心：制服組明瞭短期內無望了，所以長期戰略更為重要。排名的算計：於是這支球隊試著放掉比賽。 This is a subtle distinction, but it is an important one. More than ever, smart sports fans understand the value of patient management. (Fans are not so patient with coaches, but that is another column). You don't want your team blowing its future payroll by overpaying a player who is just past his prime. You don't want to trade future first-round picks just to get the current team to .500. You want management to let young pitchers develop, to find the quarterback of the future and nurture him, to stockpile young talent and draft picks instead of just big names. You want patience. 這就是微妙的區別，但還有更重要的，聰明如你的球迷了解這臥薪嘗膽的策略(球迷可不像教練這麼有耐心，但這不在本文討論範圍內)，你也不想你的球隊為某個過氣的大物付太多的錢，你也不想把第一輪選秀權當交易籌碼只為讓球隊過五成勝率，你想把農場大物養起來，找一個四分衛滋養他，儲備年輕戰力與選秀權而非大明星，你就需要耐心。 ROSENBERG: NBA teams can't go wrong with Wiggins, Parker, Randle Tanking is different. Tanking is when management tries to assemble the worst possible team, and even sabotages its lineups in an effort to lose games. In the NBA, teams tank so they can get the highest possible draft choice, thereby landing a franchise player. You don't see it as much in other sports because one player means more in basketball, and there is usually a big drop-off from the top of the NBA draft to the rest of it. There are years when the No. 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 picks in the NBA Draft, combined, are not worth as much as the No. 1 pick. 排名的算計是不一樣的，它是制服組組合出最差的球隊，並試著搞破壞讓其輸球，在NBA體制裡面它們就能獲得較高順位，這在其他職業運動不常見因為單一球員在籃球運動中變因更大，且我們也有很多大物棄學生，你如果將過去幾年第五到十二順位的成績加起來，恐怕還不及狀元籤的威力。 Krzyzewski is right: Tanking is un-American, and rewarding it is unseemly. And yet ... well, that is what the NBA lottery does. It rewards teams that try to lose and punishes teams that try to win. To understand the extent of the problem, just look at the odds for the 2013 lottery: Coach K是對的：排名算計太不老美了，回報獎勵也不是很適宜。那就是樂透選秀的制度，獎勵輸家懲罰贏家，要更了解這問題，我們就來看看2013年的樂透籤 2012-13戰績表 14支末流球隊球隊戰績狀元籤機率三鼎甲機率 Orlando 20-63 25.0 % 64.3% Charlotte 21-61 19.9 55.8 Cleveland 24-58 15.6 46.9 Phoenix 25-57 11.9 37.6 New Orleans 27-55 8.8 29.2 Sacramento 28-54 6.3 21.5 Detroit 29-53 3.6 14.3 Washington 29-53 3.5 10.7 Minnesota 31-51 1.7 - Portland 33-49 1.1 - Philadelphia 34-48 0.8 - Toronto* 34-48 0.7 - Dallas 41-41 0.6 - Utah 43-39 0.5 - *Oklahoma City actually had this choice; the Raptors dealt it to Houston, which traded it in the package for James Harden. But for the purposes of this discussion, let's call it Toronto's draft choice. *雷霆替代了暴龍，因暴龍跟火箭Harden的包裹交易，但在本文中，我們還是看做是暴龍的 Imagine you are a general manager. What does that chart tell you? It says that if you will be bad, you should be REALLY bad. The Magic, which torpedoed their season after Dwight Howard stopped flipping coins and finally decided he really truly did want to be traded, was six times as likely to get the top pick as the Pistons and Wizards. Orlando also had a 64.3 percent chance of getting a top-three pick, and a 100-percent chance of getting a top-four pick. The NBA clearly rewarded Orlando for being awful. 想像一下你是總管，這圖表透漏了什麼？他告訴你如果是魔術總管，你慘了，在Dwight Howard胡鬧完終於決定自己要被交易到哪一隊後，你比Pistons與Wizards有大六倍的機率拿到狀元籤，且有64.3%的可能拿到順位，然後100%的機率拿到前四名，這大大獎勵了魔術隊搞砸一切。 Sure, sometimes teams toward the bottom of the lottery jump to the top when the ping-pong balls pop out on lottery night. But in the past few years, quite a few teams looked like they were trying to get one of the three worst records in the league. It is now commonly accepted in the NBA: You either want to contend, or you want to "bottom out" ... there is no virtue in simply being just "pretty good." 當然，有些樂透順位較低的球隊在開獎時又跳了上來，但在過去幾年，相當多球隊看來是要故意擺爛的。這是普遍共識啦，不管你要打好，還是擺爛，對那些「還不錯」的球隊是沒好處的。 How did this happen? When the lottery began, in 1985, the big prize was Georgetown's Patrick Ewing, one of the greatest college players of all-time, and a guy who was already as marketable as almost every star in the NBA. The NBA was worried teams would tank to get Ewing. The lottery was invented. Seven non-playoff teams all had an equal chance at Ewing. There was no benefit to being extra stinky. 這是怎麼發生的，當樂透籤1985年開始，當時最大獎Patrick Ewing，最偉大的大學籃球員中的其中一員，早已像其他NBA球星般聲名遠播，NBA當局擔心球隊會對Patrick Ewing算計，所以發明了樂透籤，七隻沒打季後賽的球隊都有一樣的機率，完全沒有多餘獎勵給最鳥的那支球隊。 The Knicks won that lottery, of course, launching a thousand conspiracies. The NBA had accomplished its goal, though: It had eliminated the incentive to tank. The league stuck with its equal-chance lottery until 1990, when it acknowledged that, OK, some brands of stink smell worse than others. Knicks最後贏了，當然，大家也說是陰謀論，NBA當局又玩這種伎倆達成目的，然而，這消弭算計的動機。聯盟到1990年才擺脫均等的制度，當他覺察到，OK，就是有人比別人更鳥。翻到後面才知跟爵士關係沒那麼多... 但也沒差，大家都在思考這個制度。 -- GO!JAZZ!GO! -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.25.108

推

monmo

11/15 19:27, , 1^F

11/15 19:27, 1^F

推

CW4

11/15 19:36, , 2^F

11/15 19:36, 2^F

→

lowatre

11/15 19:51, , 3^F

11/15 19:51, 3^F