Should have we know the Jazz would be better?

看板UTAH-JAZZ作者MiltPalacio (Milt)時間13年前 (2010/12/03 14:36)推噓5(8推 3噓 11→)

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Locked on Jazz - Should have we know the Jazz would be better? December 2nd, 2010 One statistic I like to look at, but I am never sure how much to value is an individual players plus minus in contrast to what a team does when the player is off the floor. I have found over the year's what it really tells you is where a team is lacking depth and who it can't afford to have off the floor. Today the Utah Jazz sit at 15-5 and I am wondering if I should have taken plus minus a lot more seriously. In the roster overhaul that started at the trade deadline last year and continued into the off-season the Utah Jazz removed two players that came out the worst numerical in regards to team performance. The last few years as a Utah Jazz fan we were confronted with a strange development. Their old school best statistical player was also one of their new school statistically worst players. Carlos Boozer put up 20 points and 10 rebounds while looking questionable in advanced stats. Over the past 4 years, the Utah Jazz have been a better team when Carlos Boozer was off the floor than on the floor. I was amongst those who believed this was largely based on who he was playing against and a compliment to Paul Millsap who was the best back-up power forward in the NBA, therefore the Jazz had an advantage when he was on the floor. Yet, 20 games into the new season without Carlos Boozer I am beginning to wonder if +/- told us this was going to happen. Over the past 4 seasons the Jazz were better with Boozer off the floor the last two years and very similar with him on the floor or off the floor. ┌─────┬───────┬───────┐ │ YEAR │ON FLOOR +/- │OFF FLOOR +/- │ ├─────┼───────┼───────┤ │2006-2007 │ +3.1 │ +2.5 │ ├─────┼───────┼───────┤ │2007-2008 │ +7.2 │ +6.1 │ ├─────┼───────┼───────┤ │2008-2009 │ -1.5 │ +4.4 │ ├─────┼───────┼───────┤ │2009-2010 │ +4.6 │ +6.8 │ └─────┴───────┴───────┘ What was undeniable was how much better the Jazz were defensively with Boozer on the bench rather than on the floor. Today the Jazz are the #1 FG% defensive team and one of the best against the 3 point shot. Jerry Sloan commented today “in the past we couldn't guard inside so we had a hard time getting to shooters.” Throughout the broadcasts this season Ron Boone has complimented Al Jefferson for his ability to stay between his man and the basket. Again statistically this played out in the Numbers. Over the past 4 seasons the Jazz were a dramatically better defensive team with Boozer off the floor than on the floor. ┌─────┬───────┬────────┐ │ YEAR │PTS Allowed On│PTS Allowed off │ │ │Floor Per 48 │Floor Per 48 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2006-2007 │ 109.2 │ 106.5 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2007-2008 │ 109.4 │ 103.2 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2008-2009 │ 111.9 │ 106.9 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2009-2010 │ 108.5 │ 102.8 │ └─────┴───────┴────────┘ The Jazz have the #1 EFG (effective field goal % - weighs 3 point shooting) in the NBA at 46.3%. A year ago the Jazz were 13th in the NBA at 49.2%. Is all it Boozer's departure, probably not, but the numbers may have told us this was going to happen. At the trade deadline the Jazz moved Ronnie Brewer. Brewer had a reputation for being a good defensive player. However, the numbers told the exact opposite. The Jazz were a better defensive team with Brewer off the floor than on the floor. ┌─────┬───────┬────────┐ │ YEAR │PTS Allowed On│PTS Allowed off │ │ │Floor Per 48 │Floor Per 48 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2007-2008 │ 108.9 │ 106.3 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2008-2009 │ 110.4 │ 104.6 │ ├─────┼───────┼────────┤ │2009-2010 │ 107.5 │ 106.1 │ └─────┴───────┴────────┘ Brewer and Boozer were often on the floor together so it was always an easy explanation for why Brewer's advanced stats looked so poor. However, in retrospect maybe the numbers were telling us something. The advanced stat world is hard to comprehend and value because of the amount of statistical noise that exists evaluating one player dependent on 9 other players on the floor. However, in the case of the Utah Jazz defensive revival maybe we should have seen this coming. http://www.nba.com/jazz/features/locked_on_jazz.html -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.115.216.43

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12/03 14:43, , 1^F

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