[情報] 97W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者destiny583 (.)時間5年前 (2018/12/31 09:34)推噓14(14推 0噓 8→)

留言22則, 9人參與討論串7/7 (看更多)

https://i.imgur.com/w2m5qhR.png

WTPQ20 RJTD 310600 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 310600UTC 07.8N 112.4E POOR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 1004HPA MXWD 030KT GUST 045KT FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 07.6N 110.0E 110NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT = https://i.imgur.com/mS6tyw7.jpg

WTPN21 PGTW 302030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 115.5E TO 7.3N 107.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGE RY AT 301900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 113.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 114.9E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 301417Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 301310Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED SHAPE OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWS PRIMARILY 10-15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY BUT NOT YET WRAPPING IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT AND WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIA L FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR S IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 312030Z.// NNNN 模式似乎還蠻看好97W成為2019的第一個颱風 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 220.142.90.75 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1546220043.A.F8D.html

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Eeli2008

12/31 10:10, 5年前 , 1^F

12/31 10:10, 1^F

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destiny583

12/31 10:21, 5年前 , 2^F

12/31 10:21, 2^F

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WuCH1022

12/31 13:15, 5年前 , 3^F

12/31 13:15, 3^F