[情報] 90W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報>

看板TY_Research作者YuGar (深奧幽玄)時間7年前 (2018/07/30 15:29)推噓24(24推 0噓 20→)

留言44則, 21人參與討論串1/1

JTWC 90W TCFA http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018.gif

▲ 遠洋貨，昨天(29/2100Z)是朝東北東方向前進。原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018web.txt ] ============================================================================== WTPN21 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 152.9E TO 32.9N 153.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 291900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 148.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THERE IS WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL POSITION DUE TO A POORLY DEFINED LLCC AND LACK OF VISIBLE IMAGERY. A 281741Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH DEPICTING THE WEAK CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND A DISORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ALL DISPLAY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON TIMING. NAVGEM AND GFS ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JGSM, ECMWF, AND UKMET SHOWING DEVELOPMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 302100Z.// NNNN ============================================================================== ◇ 網址： http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.162.23.161 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1532935742.A.6CC.html

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killseven

07/30 15:39, 7年前 , 1^F

07/30 15:39, 1^F

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huangjyuan

07/30 15:57, 7年前 , 2^F

07/30 15:57, 2^F

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YuGar

07/30 16:02, 7年前 , 3^F

07/30 16:02, 3^F