[情報] 12W生成

看板TY_Research作者usaul56 (凱哥)時間6年前 (2017/07/28 16:42)推噓35(35推 0噓 13→)

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WDPN32 PGTW 280900 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 01 CORRECTED// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 280900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.1E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED BANDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON A 280231Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING SEVERAL 30 KNOT WIND BARBS AT THE EDGE OF SWATH EMBEDDED IN A LARGE REGION OF 25 KNOT WINDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING HINDERED FROM THE EXHAUST OF NEARBY TY 11W (NESAT) TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE, THERE IS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MARGINAL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. SSTS ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 12W IS DRIFTING WESTWARD IN A POOR STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM AND ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING. B. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND TD 12W WILL REMAIN IN A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION. AS TY 11W PASSES SUFFICIENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST GUIDING TD 12W NORTHEASTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION WILL REMAIN MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE STRENGTHENS, FEEDING INTO TD 12W. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD, INTERACTION FROM TY 11W IS EXPECTED, MITIGATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AROUND TAU 72, TD 12W WILL BE JUST EAST OF TY 11W, IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY. LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN DURING THIS TIME WILL HELP WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. JUST AFTER TAU 72 TD 12W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF 11W, ALSO OVER LAND. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH TY 11W. DUE TO THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: 11W IS NOW AT TYPHOON STRENGTH AND http://imgur.com/UDivOir