[討論] 莫蘭蒂颱風0912
簡單分析目前強烈颱風莫蘭蒂的狀況
強度部分:
CWB:目前58m/s 905hpa 基本封頂
JMA:目前58m/s 905hpa 未來上看60m/s 900hpa
JTWC:目前155KTS 907hpa CAT.5
可觀察入夜後強度可以衝擊何程度,目前環境仍有利微幅增強
http://imgur.com/a/aGdnK
動態部分:
CWB:中心掠過恆春半島近海轉西北移動
JTWC#15:中心登陸屏東台東交界轉西北移動
JMA:中心通過巴士海峽一路西進
影響程度:
目前以JTWC的路徑來看,影響台灣程度較大
尤其以台南、高雄、屏東、恆春半島、宜蘭、花蓮、台東(包含蘭嶼綠島)較有威脅
這幾個地區須注意莫蘭蒂可能帶來的降雨與風勢
其他地區如北部也要注意莫蘭蒂外圍帶來的較強風勢與陣雨
中部地區受中央山脈地形屏障,影響程度可能較輕
若以CWB的路徑來看,影響次之
尤其以屏東、恆春半島、宜蘭、花蓮、台東(包含蘭嶼綠島)威脅較大
一樣有較強降雨與風勢
北部地區仍要注意莫蘭蒂外圍帶來的較強風勢與陣雨,
若莫蘭蒂擦過南端近海北轉角度大,例如北北西轉上來中心通過澎湖
則台南高雄一帶也要注意
就算最後真的走JMA的巴士海峽通過
恆春半島、花蓮、台東地區也要注意降雨的威脅
莫蘭蒂的颱風警報可能於今晚到明天陸續發布
今天下午開始到明天莫蘭蒂的走向攸關影響台灣程度,是一個關鍵期
走得越偏北,CWB&JTWC的路徑就越有可能成真,對台灣各地區影響程度也不同
還是要持續觀察留意
PS.台灣地形特殊,所以往往颱風通過所影響各區域的程度有非常大的不同
所以請隨時留意最新氣象資訊,注意防颱
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