[情報] 92W GW/TCFA

看板TY_Research作者jasonccr (花花)時間10年前 (2015/05/02 23:03)推噓13(13推 0噓 5→)

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已經箭在弦上了形成之後應該命名為:紅霞 EC的預報有點精采，不過時間還久純欣賞但只希望別破壞到梅雨季的鋒面發展 --- http://i.imgur.com/6iRi5W1.jpg

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/ 熱帯低気圧平成27年05月02日22時20分発表 <02日21時の実況> 大きさ - 強さ - 熱帯低気圧存在地域カロリン諸島中心位置北緯 7度25分(7.4度) 東経 142度35分(142.6度) 進行方向、速さ西 20km/h(10kt) 中心気圧 1006hPa 中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt) 最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt) <03日21時の予報> 強さ - 存在地域カロリン諸島予報円の中心北緯 8度30分(8.5度) 東経 139度25分(139.4度) 進行方向、速さ西北西 15km/h(8kt) 中心気圧 1002hPa 中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt) 最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt) 予報円の半径 220km(120NM) --- WTPN21 PGTW 020830 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.4N 144.2E TO 8.4N 140.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 144.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 145.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 020414Z AMSU PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CONSOLIDATION, IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 030830Z.// NNNN -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 111.243.109.106 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/TY_Research/M.1430578987.A.C0C.html

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aa1477888

05/02 23:07, , 1^F

05/02 23:07, 1^F

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jasonccr

05/02 23:21, , 2^F

05/02 23:21, 2^F