[颱風] 96W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者aa1477888 (Mika)時間11年前 (2014/10/30 20:11)推噓14(14推 0噓 4→)

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WTPN21 PGTW 300900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9N 140.4E TO 13.3N 134.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 140.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, BUT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 300031Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE A 300711Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM PROCEEDS WEST. DUE TO THE CONTINUALLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 310900Z.// NNNN http://i.imgur.com/GMs2YWZ.gif