9月颱無人知,注意巴逢颱風動態~2014/10/01
今天在看巴逢颱風的資料時,覺得這句大家熟知的諺語真的很能代表目前的狀況。
進入農曆9月之後,隨著北邊開始有冷空氣、西風槽線等西風帶系統活動,
太平洋高壓的變動性跟著變大,而且不好掌握,
因此颱風的動態也就顯得比較撲朔迷離,不好預報。
依照目前實際的狀況來看,太平洋高壓仍然呈現東西向伸展,
兩個中心一東一西,中間在日本以南、琉球以東海域仍是較為明顯的鞍場弱點區,
也就是高壓脊在這一段比較薄弱,
http://ppt.cc/JLm8
因此目前的看法,巴逢颱風仍然是會繼續趨向弱點走,
大概在48小時後,也就是周五(3日)左右巴逢颱風準備進入鞍場內,
再來就是突破弱點北轉的關鍵,北轉的位置跟時間都還需要再觀察。
現在很有趣的一個狀況是,
各國氣象單位的主觀路徑預報集體呈現距離台灣較遠的地方偏東北轉,
但是幾個電腦預測模式卻呈現偏西,也就是比較靠近台灣的地方北轉的情況,
主觀預報跟客觀預報之間落差頗大,究竟未來會如何變化還有待密切觀察。
巴逢颱風的強度則是持續增強中,由於高層輻散條件頗佳,海溫又高,
因此發展的環境不錯,未來預期會變成一個大而強的颱風,
對於這個難以掌握的颱風變化,大家務必要多加注意,
周末的天氣,尤其是禮拜天,好壞的關鍵可能就在巴逢颱風身上了...
以上簡單供參考~
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