鳳凰即將誕生,周五起密切注意~2014/09/17
今天快過完了,來關心一下熱帶低壓的狀況。
菲律賓東方的熱帶低壓今天結構重新調整,環流中心調整到系統西南側,
並且逐漸西進,比原先預期的位置都要偏南而且偏西。
目前來看這個中心已經逐漸穩固,而且隨著海鷗颱風減弱,
西南季風有慢慢流向這個16W的趨勢,對流持續爆發,
螺旋雨帶正在慢慢發展建立,可能很快就會升格為輕度颱風鳳凰。
昨天高壓逐漸向西移動,今天高壓正好在台灣上空,
預估明天高壓中心有繼續西進,逐漸進入大陸華南上空的趨勢,
跟日本東南方高壓制主中心之間連接的高壓脊可能慢慢減弱,有斷裂的機會,
因此預估16W會先往西移動,然後有減速並且逐漸偏北移動的情況,
慢慢走向呂宋島東方海面,大概週五(19日)就會來到呂宋島以東,
這時隨著北方有入秋第一道鋒面南下,16W跟鋒面之間的交互作用就非常值得觀察了,
如果鋒面南下的慢,16W有可能北上到比較接近台灣才逐漸向東北轉出去,
對台灣的威脅就會較為嚴重,目前這種可能性不能排除,
因此需要特別注意接下來預報上的變化情況。
明天週四(18日)台灣大致還在高壓影響下,預估仍是山區有午後雷雨發展,
並且往西半部平地擴散的天氣型態,
溫度持續偏高,提醒大家還是要注意防曬,並且多補充水分預防中暑。
以上先簡單供參考囉~
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