[情報] 98w TCFA

看板TY_Research作者logdog (風暴之軌跡)時間12年前 (2013/06/08 09:06)推噓15(15推 0噓 1→)

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WTPN21 PGTW 072230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 129.0E TO 20.9N 132.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. A NEARBY 071800Z SHIP OBSERVATION REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH 21 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A 071631Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), BUT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION AND INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 24) AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FURTHER INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MODERATE SPREAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASING PRESSURE TREND IN THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082230Z. // NNNN 2013的台風旺季要開張了嗎? 週圍的季風雲團也開始蠢蠢欲動了... -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 123.192.193.59

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aa1477888

06/08 09:11, , 1^F

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lboevceky

06/08 09:28, , 2^F

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StarTouching

06/08 10:11, , 3^F

06/08 10:11, 3^F