天氣概況~2012/08/11~水氣豐沛~注意大雨~
這兩天外務很多~趁現在先來簡單聊聊天氣的情況~
原本在大陸安徽境內的海葵減弱後低壓昨天似乎又開始緩慢往東南移動~
這使得吹到台灣的西南風風速有所加強~
雖然還是不到西南氣流的程度~但是輸送的水氣增加許多~
昨晚開始持續影響中部以南地區~其中也包括了澎湖地區~
降雨的情況已經不僅是陸風輻合造成的降雨了~
而是又加上海面上發展的對流直接移入帶來的降雨~
今天白天在中部南部以及澎湖地區的天氣持續不穩定~
降雨雲層可能從海面上進來~也可能透過地形熱對流的機制在陸地上發展~
需要多加注意突然出現的大雨~以及雷擊的現象~
北部東半部地區目前天氣還不錯~東北部海面清楚可見背風低壓~
但是中午過後就要小心山區熱對流的發展~
對流活動旺盛時可能出現中到大雷雨的情況~
今晚在中南部以及澎湖一帶下雨的可能性仍大~持續有迎風面的水氣會進來~
中南部跟澎湖地區的朋友要持續提高警覺~
明天週日(12號)的天氣型態跟今天類似~中部南部仍然是一整天都不穩定~
其它地方還是要注意午後雷雨的發展情況~
天氣型態要轉變必須等到高壓西伸才行~
預報模式看起來高壓西伸要到下週一(13號)才會比較明顯~
因此仍是要從下週一開始天氣才會逐漸出現改變~
不過菲律賓東方的擾動93W有漸趨發展的跡象~
結構還很鬆散~但已經有旋轉以及組織低層環流的趨勢~
週圍的大氣環境還不錯~應該會持續發展加強~
特別是CISK機制的效率能提高(對流旺盛)的話~強度增強的情況就會加快~
未來有機會隨著高壓西伸而往台灣靠近~因此下禮拜天氣的變數還蠻大的
這個擾動的變化將是未來幾天觀察的最大重點~
以上簡單供參考~
P.S 明早可能也沒時間發文~有新的變化的話~明晚再來為大家報告囉~
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