天氣概況~2012/06/10~西南氣流豪雨~
西南氣流昨晚到今晨持續為中南部帶來降雨~
特別是南高屏等地的山區~雨勢相當明顯~
山區的降雨比沿海要大~顯示氣流的強度不弱~厚度也很足夠~水氣充沛~
今天看起來鋒面仍在台灣北邊~
台灣主要是受到鋒前西南氣流影響~
迎風的中南部地區一整天都會有陣雨或雷雨發生的機會~並且有豪大雨的現象~
南部山區的累積雨量最多的地方已經超過200毫米以上~雨勢頗為驚人~
今天後續還是會有降雨的情況~因此請南部的朋友要特別注意~
中部地區是雨勢次大的區域~也要防範局部性的豪大雨~
由於氣流夠強~因此降雨回波沿山爬升後仍可以翻越到花東地區~
所以花東受影響的程度比預期要大~
尤其是台東地區又比花蓮降雨要多~同樣有出現豪大雨的可能~
北部東北部則是位於西南氣流背風面~主要的降雨會發生在午後熱對流發展所造成~
熱對流發展的時候也是有機會帶來局部大雨的情況~
雖然這個週末的不穩定天氣事前已經有掌握並且提醒大家注意~
但是西南氣流兇猛的程度超乎預期~降雨的情況也比想像要大~
溫度方面因為降雨較多的關係~中南部以及花東地區比較涼快一些~
今天的高溫可能還達不到30度~
北部東北部反而悶熱很多~高溫可達32~33度以上~
必須要等到午後有降雨出現才會降溫下來~
明天週一(11號)仍是受到鋒前西南氣流的影響~
天氣型態跟今天類似~中南部以及台東地區要嚴防豪雨~
北部東北部東部則要注意午後熱對流帶來的局部大雨~
鋒面照預期仍將在週二(12號)到達台灣上空~
配合西南季風水氣而形成非常典型且明顯的梅雨鋒形態~
預估可能會在台灣上空南北徘徊至少到下週末(16~17號)
期間預報顯示西南風的風速可能會相當強~
特別是在12~14號之間~因為北邊有深厚的極渦低壓通過~
南側的槽線帶動空氣流動的速度大幅增加~
當中低層的風速達到25Kts以上時就被稱之為低層噴流~
帶來大量的水氣~也造成強烈的輻合與輻散條件~是很容易出現劇烈降水的情況
撞上地形後又加入舉升的因素~降雨的情況會持續更久~
看起來好像很嚇人~但如果照現在預報的情況真實發生的話~降雨的確會蠻嚴重的~
做預報並不是要嚇唬大家~不過還是要把該注意的地方特別強調一下~
所以還是要請中南部的朋友做好準備~留意下週可能發生的劇烈降雨~
下週五(15號)之後北邊的極渦低壓減弱~
西南季風的強度會減緩一點~但鋒面還是停留~西南季風也還是存在~
因此降雨的現象恐怕得一直持續到下個週末(16~17號)~
之後就得看太平洋高壓西伸增強的情況了~
一但出現大幅度的北跳西伸~把鋒面往北邊推上去~
梅雨可能也就要接近尾聲了~
以上先簡單供參考囉~
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