[情報] 98W TCFA

看板TY_Research作者hcyevi07 (hcyED SURFACE WINDS ARE)時間14年前 (2011/09/23 06:45)推噓3(3推 0噓 0→)

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WTPN21 PGTW 222000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 139.8E TO 15.2N 135.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 221730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 141.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 221642Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS CURVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT YAP HAS DROPPED APPROXIMATELY 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 232000Z.// NNNN http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9811.gif