暴風圈接近~
晚上特別到了台北車站附近晃了一圈~順便到氣象局拿了警報單
當時台北市的風雨還不強~不過現在回到家~降雨有開始加大的情況
從雷達資料來看~凡那比的暴風圈邊緣已經來到東部近海處
颱風結構紮實~西弱東強的情況明顯可見
都已經這麼靠近了~北台灣的風雨都還沒有很顯著
但是相對的八重山群島卻出現了15~16級的強陣風
因此可以預估颱風暴風圈真正進來時~風雨會增強的非常快
照現在的速度來看~暴風圈邊緣可能在午夜過後就會接觸陸地
下半夜開始包括北部東北部還有現在仍風平浪靜的花蓮風雨都可能顯著加大
西部沿海的風力也將持續加強~
台東地區等到颱風暴風圈開始接觸陸地後~風雨的情況應該也會出現
但是隨著風向繼續轉西北風下來~要留意焚風的情況是否發生
另外從雷達來看~西部沿海逐漸有細長的回波出現
颱風環流跟台灣地形的交互作用似乎已經逐漸要開始
除了要開始觀察颱風中心的動態變化外
提醒中南部的朋友要特別注意西北跟西南風輻合線的變化
一但有明顯的輻合~發生暴雨的可能性就會很大
而颱風本身看起來~雙眼的情況還是存在~但晚間看起來變得有些若隱若現
內眼不是很鞏固~外眼牆卻很完整~甚至已經有內縮的趨勢
是否代表凡那比已經開始強制進行眼牆置換值得觀察~
颱風走向大致仍是繼續偏西前進~
接下來跟地形交互作用後~走向應該會開始有些變動
過123E後是否出現打轉的現象值得密切觀察
台東的焚風現象明顯與否應該是很好的指標~
如果焚風低壓顯著會對颱風中心有吸引力~配合地形對颱風環流的阻擋作用~
颱風低層一但翻不過去就會打轉了~接著就看是直接還是分裂過山
當然不打轉是最好~直接過山的話可以縮短風雨的時間
目前來看登陸的時間大概還是落在明天中午前的機會最大
請大家做好防範~祝大家今晚平安~
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.165.27.229
推
09/18 21:58, , 1F
09/18 21:58, 1F
→
09/18 21:59, , 2F
09/18 21:59, 2F
推
09/18 21:59, , 3F
09/18 21:59, 3F
推
09/18 21:59, , 4F
09/18 21:59, 4F
推
09/18 21:59, , 5F
09/18 21:59, 5F
推
09/18 21:59, , 6F
09/18 21:59, 6F
推
09/18 21:59, , 7F
09/18 21:59, 7F
推
09/18 21:59, , 8F
09/18 21:59, 8F
推
09/18 21:59, , 9F
09/18 21:59, 9F
推
09/18 21:59, , 10F
09/18 21:59, 10F
推
09/18 22:00, , 11F
09/18 22:00, 11F
推
09/18 22:00, , 12F
09/18 22:00, 12F
推
09/18 22:00, , 13F
09/18 22:00, 13F
推
09/18 22:00, , 14F
09/18 22:00, 14F
推
09/18 22:00, , 15F
09/18 22:00, 15F
推
09/18 22:00, , 16F
09/18 22:00, 16F
推
09/18 22:01, , 17F
09/18 22:01, 17F
推
09/18 22:01, , 18F
09/18 22:01, 18F
推
09/18 22:01, , 19F
09/18 22:01, 19F
推
09/18 22:01, , 20F
09/18 22:01, 20F
推
09/18 22:01, , 21F
09/18 22:01, 21F
推
09/18 22:01, , 22F
09/18 22:01, 22F
推
09/18 22:02, , 23F
09/18 22:02, 23F
推
09/18 22:02, , 24F
09/18 22:02, 24F
推
09/18 22:02, , 25F
09/18 22:02, 25F
推
09/18 22:02, , 26F
09/18 22:02, 26F
推
09/18 22:02, , 27F
09/18 22:02, 27F
推
09/18 22:02, , 28F
09/18 22:02, 28F
→
09/18 22:03, , 29F
09/18 22:03, 29F
推
09/18 22:03, , 30F
09/18 22:03, 30F
→
09/18 22:03, , 31F
09/18 22:03, 31F
→
09/18 22:04, , 32F
09/18 22:04, 32F
推
09/18 22:04, , 33F
09/18 22:04, 33F
推
09/18 22:05, , 34F
09/18 22:05, 34F
推
09/18 22:05, , 35F
09/18 22:05, 35F
推
09/18 22:05, , 36F
09/18 22:05, 36F
推
09/18 22:07, , 37F
09/18 22:07, 37F
推
09/18 22:07, , 38F
09/18 22:07, 38F
推
09/18 22:08, , 39F
09/18 22:08, 39F
還有 66 則推文
推
09/18 22:59, , 106F
09/18 22:59, 106F
推
09/18 23:02, , 107F
09/18 23:02, 107F
推
09/18 23:03, , 108F
09/18 23:03, 108F
→
09/18 23:03, , 109F
09/18 23:03, 109F
推
09/18 23:04, , 110F
09/18 23:04, 110F
推
09/18 23:05, , 111F
09/18 23:05, 111F
推
09/18 23:06, , 112F
09/18 23:06, 112F
推
09/18 23:07, , 113F
09/18 23:07, 113F
推
09/18 23:14, , 114F
09/18 23:14, 114F
推
09/18 23:17, , 115F
09/18 23:17, 115F
推
09/18 23:17, , 116F
09/18 23:17, 116F
推
09/18 23:18, , 117F
09/18 23:18, 117F
推
09/18 23:18, , 118F
09/18 23:18, 118F
推
09/18 23:18, , 119F
09/18 23:18, 119F
推
09/18 23:18, , 120F
09/18 23:18, 120F
推
09/18 23:21, , 121F
09/18 23:21, 121F
推
09/18 23:23, , 122F
09/18 23:23, 122F
推
09/18 23:24, , 123F
09/18 23:24, 123F
→
09/18 23:25, , 124F
09/18 23:25, 124F
→
09/18 23:26, , 125F
09/18 23:26, 125F
推
09/18 23:32, , 126F
09/18 23:32, 126F
推
09/18 23:32, , 127F
09/18 23:32, 127F
→
09/18 23:38, , 128F
09/18 23:38, 128F
推
09/18 23:40, , 129F
09/18 23:40, 129F
推
09/18 23:42, , 130F
09/18 23:42, 130F
推
09/18 23:43, , 131F
09/18 23:43, 131F
推
09/18 23:47, , 132F
09/18 23:47, 132F
推
09/18 23:47, , 133F
09/18 23:47, 133F
推
09/18 23:48, , 134F
09/18 23:48, 134F
推
09/18 23:49, , 135F
09/18 23:49, 135F
推
09/18 23:52, , 136F
09/18 23:52, 136F
推
09/18 23:57, , 137F
09/18 23:57, 137F
推
09/18 23:58, , 138F
09/18 23:58, 138F
→
09/18 23:59, , 139F
09/18 23:59, 139F
→
09/19 00:02, , 140F
09/19 00:02, 140F
推
09/19 00:06, , 141F
09/19 00:06, 141F
推
09/19 04:15, , 142F
09/19 04:15, 142F
→
09/19 05:11, , 143F
09/19 05:11, 143F
推
09/19 06:28, , 144F
09/19 06:28, 144F
→
08/13 21:10, , 145F
08/13 21:10, 145F