天氣概況~2009/09/13
一早起來台北開始飄起小雨來
北部東半部等地的天氣如預期的轉差了
擾動91W昨天白天持續往呂宋島東北角一帶接近
到昨晚開始有高低層分裂的現象發生~呂宋島上空爆發強烈對流並且往西飄
慢慢在呂宋島西北海面誘生出另一個中心
原中心則持續被往西北帶~目前逐漸通過恆春以南
看起來兩個中心組成一狹長的LLCC~結構仍在持續調整中
不過大致會持續走向西北西~也就是往廣東海面發展
對台灣看起來並沒有直接威脅~倒是對於港澳以及粵西沿海的威脅頗大
預估今晚到明天等LLCC逐漸調整完畢~有可能就會被升格為輕度颱風
91W北側的外圍環流北擴~配合北邊有東北季風前緣南下
兩者會合已經在迎風的台灣北部東北部東部造成降雨
兩股氣流的交會處也形成了鋒面系統
尾端大致延伸到台灣東北部近海~天氣狀態也因此轉為不穩定的情況
今天受到這樣的南北系統交會影響
桃園台北基隆宜蘭花蓮一直到台東及恆春半島等地有短暫陣雨
南部的高屏一帶同樣會有短暫陣雨的現象
這些地方也可能有較大的雨勢會發生~請特別注意
新竹到台中一帶則大致為多雲的天氣~中部山區午後仍可能出現熱力對流
另外就是北部東半部以及恆春半島沿海的風浪已經明顯增強~
今天隨著東北風南下~台灣海峽的北風也將逐漸轉強
沿海的活動並不適合~最好是不要前往
明後天91W持續往廣東沿海發展~外圍水氣跟東北風的交會仍將持續
迎風的北部東半部仍有短暫陣雨~目前來看同樣有較大雨勢發生的機會
不過這種南北系統的交會降雨情況會隨著系統的變化而有改變
因此降雨可能更多或是逐漸趨緩還需要觀察~
溫度方面因為風向轉變加上下雨~
在北部東北部以及花東恆春半島等地會稍微涼快一些
昨天台北因為東風下沉出現了36度以上的高溫~今明兩天可望舒服許多
中南部則還是比較悶熱的溫度
而另一個在關島東方的擾動93W昨天迅速發展~很快的變成第0914號颱風彩雲
其前身是來自一次低緯度赤道反氣旋北擴引起的東風波動
良好條件的加持下可說是發展快速~完全是標準強颱的苗子
結構建立的不差~還沒來得及討論就已經發展出良好的LLCC
今天清晨來看正在開始旋捲眼牆的結構~強度預估會持續快速發展
動態方面在未來48小時甚至72小時內會持續往偏西方向移動
目前彩雲北面的高壓勢力較強~將引導彩雲西移
不過逐漸通過關島以北~來到140E左右時動態的變化會開始出現
高緯度預估有西風槽活動~是否令副高壓產生斷裂而讓彩雲北轉值得注意
變數還很大~目前也無法評估是否影響到東亞陸地
以上簡單供參考囉~
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