[討論] 聖帕分析#5
聖帕颱風在今天展開爆發性的增強
一大早就一躍而至130kts的強度
除了海溫一直優異 應也與強力的高層幅散有關
聖帕午後雖未再增強 不過晚間又再度小幅增強到135kts的強度
T指數指標也再度上升
中央氣象局在今晚將聖帕升為強颱 半徑也擴張為250km
一切的資訊都顯示這個颱風還在成長
務必要特必留意
畢竟聖帕直撲台灣的機會 是非常非常的大
最重要的轉折在於今天午後的轉向
颱風首先開始減速 然後開始向西北西緩慢移動
晚間甚至偶爾出現偏北北西到正北的移動路線
未來這種行徑短期內應不會有變化 但速度會加快(事實上 近幾小時已經略為加速了)
直到高壓把主力西移 壓到颱風的北方 颱風才會轉為比較偏西北西到西北的方向
隨著預報時間的接近
數值預報的結果也逐漸趨於相近
南至台東 北至蘇澳
大概就是目前絕大部份氣象單位或是數值預報所跑出來的結果
如果沒有意外 這種結果應該是有相當可信度的
而到底是北或南
明天應該就是很大的關鍵
大家也可以觀察從現在開始到明天 颱風偏北的角度大小 和速度如何
海上警報應該在明早就會發布
這個颱風非常強
不論最後從哪登陸
大家防颱準備一定不可少
現在就密切觀察近時颱風偏北的角度吧 這將是颱風從北或南影響台灣的關鍵
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※ ryonest:轉錄至看板 scutran_city 08/15 23:52
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