[新聞] 美國民間就業放緩令經濟更加黯淡

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1.原文連結： https://tinyurl.com/y63qcfep 2.原文內容： Slowing U.S. private hiring adds to gloom over economy 美國民間就業放緩令經濟更加黯淡 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hiring by U.S. private employers slowed further in Se ptember, suggesting that trade tensions, which have pressured manufacturing, could be spilling over to the labor market. 華盛頓（路透）——美國9月民間部門招聘活動進一步放緩，暗示令制造業承壓的貿易緊張局勢可能蔓延至勞工市場。 The ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday also showed private payrolls growth in August was not as strong as previously estimated, and said “busi nesses have turned more cautious in their hiring,” with small enterprises b ecoming “especially hesitant.” ADP周三公布的全國就業報告亦顯示，8月民間就業人口增幅不及先前預估的強勁，并稱企業在招聘方面變得更加謹慎，小型企業尤其猶豫不決。 It came on the heels of a survey on Tuesday showing manufacturing activity t umbled to a more than 10-year low in September. The reports added to cooling consumer spending in suggesting that the economy was losing momentum, thoug h a recession is probably not on the horizon. 周二公布的一項調查顯示，9月份制造業活動降至逾10年低點。這些報告進一步冷卻了消費者支出，暗示經濟正在失去動力，盡管衰退可能還沒有出現。 The economy’s darkening outlook was also underscored by another report on W ednesday showing a measure of current business conditions in New York City d ropped to a 40-month low in September. 周三公布的另一份報告也突顯了經濟前景愈發黯淡。該報告顯示，9月紐約市當前商業狀況降至40個月低點。 The longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, is losing gr ound with the blame largely put on a 15-month trade war between the United S tates and China, which has eroded business confidence. 有記錄以來持續時間最長的經濟擴張如今已進入第11個年頭，但卻在節節敗退，原因主要在于美國和中國之間持續了15個月的貿易戰，這場貿易戰侵蝕了商業信心。 Slowing job growth is a concern as it could curb consumer spending, which ha s been the economy’s main growth engine. 就業增長放緩令人擔憂，因為它可能抑制消費支出，而消費支出一直是美國經濟的主要增長引擎。 Private employers added 135,000 jobs in September, the ADP National Employme nt report showed. Data for August was revised downward to show private payro lls increasing by 157,000 jobs instead of the previously reported 195,000 po sitions. ADP全國就業報告顯示，9月份私營部門增加了13.5萬個就業崗位。8月數據被向下修正，顯示民間就業人口增加15.7萬人，而非先前公布的19.5萬人。 “We continue to believe that the underlying trend in job growth has slowed lately but that it remains decent,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPM organ in New York. 摩根大通(JPMorgan)駐紐約經濟學家丹尼爾?西爾弗(Daniel Silver)表示:“我們仍然認為，就業增長的基本趨勢最近有所放緩，但仍相當可觀。” Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment rising by 140,0 00 jobs in September. 接受路透調查的經濟學家此前預計，9月民間就業崗位增加14萬個。 The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Tre asury prices rose. Stocks on Wall Street dropped to one-month lows. 美元兌一籃子貨幣變動不大，而美國公債價格上漲。華爾街股市下跌到一個月來的最低點。 WEAKER EMPLOYMENT REPORT? 疲軟的就業報告？ The ADP figures come ahead of the Labor Department’s more comprehensive non farm payrolls report due out on Friday, which includes both public- and priv ate-sector employment. ADP數據出爐之際，美國勞工部(Labor Department)將于周五發布更全面的非農就業報告，其中包括公共部門和私營部門的就業情況。 The ADP report, which is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, has a po or record predicting the private payrolls component of the government’s emp loyment report. However, last month’s job gains fit in with economists’ ex pectations for moderate nonfarm payrolls growth in September. ADP報告是與穆迪聯合編制的，在預測政府就業報告中的私營部門就業數據方面，它的記錄不佳。不過，上個月的就業增長符合經濟學家對9月份非農就業人數溫和增長的預期。 Some analysts believe a weaker employment report is likely. 一些分析師認為，就業報告可能會更加疲弱。 “I believe that Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will come in weaker than forecas t,” said Kevin Giddis, chief fixed income strategist at Raymond James in Me mphis, Tennessee. “In my opinion, a number below 100,000 is likely more pro bable. It just has that feeling.” Raymond James首席固定收益策略師吉迪斯(Kevin Giddis)說，我認為周五的非農就業數據將弱于預期。在我看來，低于10萬的可能性更大。感覺上就是這樣。 According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls probably incre ased by 145,000 jobs in September, after rising 130,000 in August. Job gains have averaged 158,000 per month this year, above the roughly 100,000 needed each month to keep up with growth in the working age population. 根據路透對分析師的調查，9月非農就業人口可能增加14.5萬人，8月為增加13萬人。今年，美國平均每月新增就業15.8萬人，高于每月約10萬人的水平，而這一水平是美國適齡勞動人口增長所必需的。 The unemployment rate is forecast unchanged at 3.7% for a fourth straight mo nth. 預計失業率將連續第四個月保持在3.7%。 The ADP report showed employment in the goods-producing sector increased by 8,000 jobs in September. Manufacturing payrolls rose by 2,000 jobs last mont h and construction added 9,000 positions. Natural resources and mining shed 3,000 jobs. ADP報告顯示，9月份商品生產部門的就業崗位增加了8,000個。上個月制造業就業人數增加了2000人，建筑業增加了9000人。自然資源和采礦業減少了3000個工作崗位。 The services sector added 127,000 jobs last month, with gains concentrated i n education and health services, professional and business services, and tra de, transportation and utilities industries. 上個月，服務業增加了12.7萬個就業崗位，主要集中在教育和醫療服務、專業和商業服務以及貿易、運輸和公用事業行業。 In a separate report on Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management-New Y ork current business conditions index dropped to a reading of 42.8 last mont h, the lowest since May 2016, from 50.3 in August. Businesses were also down beat about the outlook over the next six months. 在星期三的一份獨立報告中，美國供應管理協會(ISM)紐約當期商業景氣指數從八月的 50.3降至上月的42.8，是2016年5月以來的最低水平。企業也對未來六個月的前景感到悲觀。 The survey’s six-month outlook gauge tumbled 26.2 points to 45.2 in Septemb er, the lowest reading since February 2009. Its employment measure dropped t o a 19-month low of 52.5 from 69.0 in August. 該調查的6個月展望指數在九月下跌26.2點，至45.2點，為2009年2月以來的最低水平。它的就業率從8月的69降到了19的52.5個月低點。 “Purchasing managers are struggling and are more nervous about the future t han they have been at any point since the Great Recession,” said Adam Kamin s, an economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. 穆迪位于賓夕法尼亞州西切斯特的經濟學家亞當·卡明斯(Adam Kamins)說，采購經理們正在苦苦掙扎，他們對未來的擔憂比大衰退以來的任何時候都要嚴重。 But there was some encouraging news on the housing market, which has been st ruggling since hitting a soft patch last year. The Mortgage Bankers Associat ion said applications for loans to purchase a home increased 10% last week f rom a year ago. 但樓市方面也有一些令人鼓舞的消息。自去年遭遇疲軟以來，樓市一直在苦苦掙扎。美國抵押貸款銀行家協會(Mortgage Bankers Association)說，上周購房貸款申請較上年同期增加了10%。 The report added to data on homebuilding, building permits and home sales in suggesting that the housing market slump had probably run its course. Resid ential investment has contracted for six straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the Great Recession. 該報告補充了房屋建筑、建筑許可和房屋銷售數據，暗示樓市可能已經走到了盡頭。住宅投資已經連續6個季度收縮，是自大衰退以來持續時間最長的一次。 The housing market is being lifted by lower mortgage rates, thanks to intere st rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 由于美聯儲(Federal Reserve)降息，抵押貸款利率下降提振了房地產市場。 3.心得/評論： 1.8月雇傭數據被下修了20%（19.5萬—15.7萬），之前灌水嚴重。 2.9月雇傭數據連8月的數據都不到（13.5萬 vs 15.7萬） 3.9月增加雇傭人數主要集中在教育、醫療服務、專業和商業服務及貿易、運輸和公用事業行業，主要是三產服務業；而川普主打的制造業回流，商品生產崗位增加8000個，制造業就業增加2000個，和服務業相比太少。 4.美國供應管理協會的6月期展望指數降到了2009年2月以來的最低點。 5.受美聯儲降息影響，房地產市場有一定提振。冤有頭債有主，我是大自然的搬運工，不服找路透。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 114.245.164.216 (中國) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1570094452.A.C69.html

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