[標的] 大立光3008 空
1. 標的：大立光3008
2. 分類：空
3. 分析/正文：
從今年來看各個新聞都是利多
例如毛利率創下新高70.78
年增率大增
還有接到訂單之類的新聞
但這都是預料之中的事
而且大立光根本沒在缺訂單 接到訂單什麼的個人都把他解讀為拉高出貨的訊號
大立光只缺高利潤的訂單 低利潤的都放去下游做了 也不屑做 只會拉低毛利
簡單看了一下今年財報 第一季EPS36.41 但第二季的稼動率跟第一季差不多
都八成左右 EPS大概40左右 但那都不是重點
重點是第三季會7月開始進新機台 第四季會開始移動舊機台到新廠區
新機台大概要進目前總機台數的30% 第四季可以開始量產
但要把舊機台移動到新廠區勢必會影響到產量
預估一下第三季EPS大概60元 第四季有IPHONE8加持大概90元
今年賺到220元應該不是問題
現在股價4875 本益比超過20倍個人覺得太貴
明年初會在目前進總機台數的50%
等機台完全架設完 測試量產已經是明年第二季以後的事了
明年才有4800的價值 但因為變數太多
所以小弟我先鍵盤空一張
4. 進退場機制：(非長期投資者，必須有停損機制)
4天交易日站穩4850
或衝破5000停損
停利暫定4000看大盤狀態而定
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