[新聞] 跟萬點party說掰掰
1.原文連結(超過一行或過長必須縮網址):
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/business/paper/1090321
2.原文內容:
跟萬點party說掰掰
2017-03-31
台股距離萬點僅有一步之遙,這種看似近、卻又遙遠的距離,就像一層薄紗遮在眼前,
不過這層紗4月開始就會慢慢褪去,眼前呈現的將會相當現實,
就是萬點Party要跟大家說掰掰了!
其實台股拚萬點最好的時機就是3月份,為什麼這麼說?大家很清楚這波台股上攻,
就是今年大量流入市場的熱錢,推升台幣後,又進場買權值股,
而且3月是上市櫃公司公布去年獲利的時候,去年第4季新台幣大貶值,許多公司3月
公布的去年財報,明顯優於預期,但這個效應離3月底越近越隨之遞減。
簡單的說,3月的兩大利多就是去年第4季財報佳以及熱錢推升,但4月開始,
這個情況將要大幅反轉。首先是熱錢推升新台幣,今年首季台幣就升值了6%以上,
而去年整年只升值2.44%,但光是一家和碩(4938)匯損就超過40億元,可以想見
台灣上市櫃公司首季財報匯損慘烈的情況,將會從4月開始顯現。
至於熱錢,跟4月中台灣會不會納入外匯操縱國也大有關係,一旦台灣未被納入,
可以預見已經在股市、匯市賺飽的熱錢,將會順勢獲利了結,手腳快的,
應該會在春假結束後就先落跑,若真如此,股匯雙殺的機率將大幅提高。
其實萬點過不過,跟多數投資人沒有太多關聯,但若大盤出現明顯回檔,
個股多少還是會受影響,所以也不用太相信「萬點是起點」、「萬點不是天花板」
這種自我安慰的話,顧好自己荷包比較要緊。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫滿20字):
炫哥波浪理論
谷大師 易大師 萬點來了
9980點 V.S 10020點
外資繼續加油,還差200點
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