Re: [請益] 高點是不是真的快到了
現在台股接近萬點,我想很多人都會有這樣的疑慮,
那是因為過往每到萬點總是驚鴻一瞥早讓很多人對於萬點戒慎恐懼,
'萬點崩盤論'更讓一些人乾脆選擇逢高放空,會有這樣的想法很正常.
不過,今年的經濟基本面成長力道看好,國際股市也還在一路創新高,
加上台股預測本益比依然落在歷史新低附近(14倍多)連十年平均本益比都不到,
只要國際盤不大幅反轉,經濟情勢不快速逆轉,外資法人現期貨不大幅翻空,
那麼敢說台股萬點不會過嗎? 多頭市場基本上就是高低點不斷墊高,
任何技術面上的壓力到後來都會被一一突破,台股之前在8000,9000,
乃至9500,哪一個關卡是好過的? 最後不都關關難過關關過,假如去看其他國家股市,
其他金融商品就更明瞭了,美股20000點不是被突破還變買點?
黃金1000美元壓力是30多年來的魔咒,現在呢?
當然,來到萬點附近是有可能震盪整理,說不定還會讓放空的散戶'獲利一下',
等到散戶開始食髓知味在萬點放空後,屆時恐怕就是萬點以上軋空行情的開始,
萬點這個壓力鍋有效突破以後,觸發的程式交易買盤與自營商權證避險潮勢必相當驚人,
到時軋上來的速度會很難想像,起碼是之前的兩倍,或許要大家接受萬點非高點,
甚至去接受未來萬點會是買點的想法並不容易,但是,基於順勢操作的概念,
終究要去習慣這樣的思維,畢竟,金融市場唯一不變的就是變.
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