Re: [心得] 高點現象經驗談
中長線波段高點要到,依我的經驗是這樣:
1.無量不做頭,短線的波段高點不一定帶量,但中長線的高點通常十之八九帶量,
以目前台股日平均成交值千億左右來說這不叫頭部量,真要出現警訊量,
至少是超過1400億的日均量或是單日爆發出超過1800億的量能.
2.融資目前增幅有限,近期融資有增加,但是增幅遠不及大盤漲幅,
過往中長期高點出現融資常常會每天增個20-30億以上甚至更多,
第一批融資開始獲利多半還沒走完,長期經驗是第三批以後融資進場就要當心.
3.主要權值股開始漲幅放緩或不漲,倒是金融股,次要電子股如面板,led開始連日發飆,
這也意味著拉其他股票撐盤掩飾震盪出貨,等到連中華電信都連日大漲時,
大概也差不多玩完了.
4.vix開始隨著行情上漲不跌反升,甚至竄高,每天開盤不久漲停家數愈來愈多,
這代表投資大眾已由理性轉為亢奮,甚或開盤追價意願轉強,
表現出來就是買進買權需求跟著增加,但買進賣權亦增,法人反而在一片看好中開始避險.
5.法人期貨空單,買進賣權與權值股借券放空連日暴增,這很可能是重要警訊.
這些情況只要沒出現,中長線波段高點就還有一段可走.
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