[標的] 加權指數分析
1. 標的:加權指數
2. 分類:心得
3. 分析/正文:
加權週線
http://imgur.com/nSEx2R0
![](https://i.imgur.com/nSEx2R0.jpg)
去年8月底點以來的大型三角型態,
目前已經有往上突破的狀況發生,
我們先不論是否有假突破的可能,
就是直接的就線論線來看,
型態的確是有突破的狀況發生,
而且MACD的部份站上零軸後有蘊釀力道的情形,
如果這邊順利走出多頭攻勢,是很有機會走出不錯的行情,
而週線看,比較關鍵的壓力就是去年6月的低點約9170。
而波浪來說,基本上我是把9170這個位置視為A波,
但是C波之後的大區間整理型態我無法評估,
所以這次就沒有標出計數
因為就週線來說數出來也是複雜型態,
對預測可能不會有太大的幫助。
加權日線
http://imgur.com/KyVnyUm
![](https://i.imgur.com/KyVnyUm.jpg)
紅線代表的是多頭趨勢
綠線則是空頭趨勢
在前兩次高點下殺時,空方都有效的走出空頭趨勢以及主跌段,
但是這一次在有效的下殺出現前,
就被多方的力道逆轉。
如果這邊多頭趨勢得以延伸走出主升段,
再搭配週線來看,
真的會覺得後續多頭行情可以期待。
而且在指標上也出線背離狀況,
但是這一次在雙指標都出現有效背離的訊號後,
硬生生被扛上去使的指標失敗。
樂觀的講完了,講講悲觀的,
雖然目前暫時沒有甚麼有利空方的機會,
但是近幾個月來市場訊息混亂,
短線跳空大漲大跌次數變多,
昨天空方轉折今天換多方轉折這兩週大家也都看在眼裡,
所以雖然我就目前的盤勢來看是挺偏多的,
但是若市場不給我這口飯吃(假突破、黑天鵝或是在這邊又做個頭),
我該跑該停損的還是會做。
結論:在沒有有利空頭的型態出現前,以多方為主,並嚴守紀律。
--
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