[新聞] 央行6月降息就看這3點! 台經院:機率不低
1.原文連結(必須檢附):
http://n.yam.com/housefun/fn/20160617/20160616752997.html
2.原文內容:
好房News-2016年06月17日 上午01:58
台灣出口連14黑,讓人不禁懷疑在出口嚴重疲弱下,這個月是否央行又將降息?如果從
2015年9月開出第一槍後,目前已經三度降息半碼,而這個水平已經逼近2009年全球金融
海嘯時期的歷史低點,若是依照台經院景氣預測中心主任孫明德的分析,只要符合這三個
要點,有可能6月就會4度降息,甚至央行降息步調不變,2016年9月就要追平金融海嘯創
下的利率歷史新低。
央行降息的機率不斷升高,不是沒有原因,行庫主管分析,目前可以看見台灣出口嚴重衰
退,目前5月最新公布的數字為235.4億美元、年減9.6%,出口數據雖然在回穩當中,但整
體表現仍不佳,加上景氣燈號連10月亮藍燈,顯示景氣持續低迷,因此不僅行庫、分析師
就連台經院等單位,都認為央行在6月的理監事會議上,決定連四季降息的機率很高。
就像聯合財經網就有一篇報導,以台灣經濟研究院景氣預測中心主任孫明德的說法指出,
降息是因應國內景氣負成長,加上經濟表現不佳,若國外主要央行都持續維持貨幣寬鬆,
台灣央行跟進降息,也是正常的考量,所以觀察要點有三,包括:國際利率決策、台灣出
口數表現,以及台灣的物價指數。
其實觀察2015年9月央行開出降息第一槍後,至2016年3月已三度降息半碼(1碼為0.25個
百分點),而這個水準若是放在代表政策利率的重貼現率,已經距離2009年全球金融海嘯
時期的歷史低點1.25%,僅有1碼差距,所以只要維持降息步調,台灣2016年9月就要追平
金融海嘯時期,創下的利率歷史新低。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫):
降息 = 救經濟
關注焦點 央行6月30日月底召開理監事會議 是否降息
降息機率看來不低 讚嘆台G貢獻 持續訂購機器設備 讓目前指數還能維持8500點
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※ 編輯: f204137 (36.229.2.111), 06/18/2016 09:51:29
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