[新聞] 打臉彭淮南!外資:台灣遲早會見到負利率
1.原文連結(必須檢附):
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160326002486-260410
2.原文內容:
2016年03月26日 10:50 吳美觀/綜合報導
外資認為,除非台灣經濟能在短期內好轉,否則央行遲早得採行負利率。(圖/報系資料
照)
中央銀行在前(24)日的理監事會議,再度宣布降息半碼(0.125個百分點),央行總裁
彭淮南更強調,「在他任內不容易看到零利率或是負利率」;不過,外資可不這麼樂觀,
反而吐槽12A總裁,認為「台灣的利率遲早會轉負」!
《Business Insider》日前報導,Capital Economics亞洲經濟學家Gareth Leather的研
究報告指出,台灣今年的經濟展望依舊嚴峻,核心通膨持續低迷,儘管2月消費者物價指
數(CPI)年增2.4%,創3年來最大漲幅,但其實是被食物價格拉高所影響,應是短暫現象
,因此通膨增溫的疑慮,並不會阻止央行進一步降息。
雖然彭淮南表示,台灣利率比起各國還算是很高,採用傳統貨幣政策仍有很大的空間;但
Leather打臉指出,台灣背負的債務已逼近法定上限,央行得一肩扛起救經濟的重任,除
非短期內能逆轉疲弱的經濟情況,否則央行遲早得端出負利率猛藥或其他非傳統的貨幣政
策。
從去年9月以來,央行已連續3度降息共0.375個百分點,市場預期央行6月仍有降息可能,
此看法也與Leather不謀而合。且國內金融業者推估,到今年底前,應該還會再降息3次。
3.心得/評論(必需填寫):
年金改革如果有成,政府應該就有較多經費投入建設,未必要單靠彭淮南。
雖說短期內是降息周期,但台灣是否有慘到要實施負利率,還是令人存疑。
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