Re: [心得] 九次台幣升貶與台股的關係
股市匯市之間是會相互影響的 http://i.imgur.com/1FFurlk.png
![](https://i.imgur.com/1FFurlk.jpg)
但兩者沒有絕對的因果,只是大致上會順著趨勢出現貶漲升跌現象
譬如 200707-200710 之間,台股有劇烈的波動,但匯市卻沒有驟貶驟升
而在 200805-200807 之間,台幣維持在30元左右的高檔時,台股已經先跌一波了
後來 200807-200903 匯市形成貶值的趨勢後,台股傲嬌一下才一去不回頭
直到電子股因為台幣大幅的貶值來到35元才止穩向上帶動台股反攻
匯市也差不多在此時稍稍回升
也就是說,一開始股市會率先反應景氣狀態
反應出雛形後,匯市就會跟上加劇股市的上漲或下跌
若各國央行使用貨幣工具,匯市就會反過來影響股市走向
但政府最主要的目標,其實還是在透過各種工具去影響景氣復甦
以結果論來看就是這樣:
景氣差→股市跌→匯市貶→股市跌更兇
→因為匯市貶大幅影響台灣主要的電子產業→景氣復甦
→電子股開始回穩(自金融股抽出的資金)→景氣復甦→股匯市雙雙回穩
所以,最精確的當然還是要看向景氣、需求、競爭的強弱了 ╮(﹀_﹀")╭
--
◢█◣ / 掰~
███◤ ─═
◢███
◥██◤
┘└
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.192.205.176
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Stock/M.1439442870.A.D85.html
→
08/13 13:20, , 1F
08/13 13:20, 1F
推
08/13 13:24, , 2F
08/13 13:24, 2F
推
08/13 13:26, , 3F
08/13 13:26, 3F
推
08/13 13:26, , 4F
08/13 13:26, 4F
→
08/13 13:27, , 5F
08/13 13:27, 5F
→
08/13 13:27, , 6F
08/13 13:27, 6F
推
08/13 13:27, , 7F
08/13 13:27, 7F
推
08/13 13:41, , 8F
08/13 13:41, 8F
推
08/13 13:43, , 9F
08/13 13:43, 9F
推
08/13 13:45, , 10F
08/13 13:45, 10F
推
08/13 13:50, , 11F
08/13 13:50, 11F
推
08/13 13:55, , 12F
08/13 13:55, 12F
推
08/13 13:56, , 13F
08/13 13:56, 13F
推
08/13 13:56, , 14F
08/13 13:56, 14F
推
08/13 13:58, , 15F
08/13 13:58, 15F
→
08/13 14:16, , 16F
08/13 14:16, 16F
推
08/13 14:20, , 17F
08/13 14:20, 17F
推
08/13 14:24, , 18F
08/13 14:24, 18F
→
08/13 14:38, , 19F
08/13 14:38, 19F
推
08/13 14:38, , 20F
08/13 14:38, 20F
推
08/13 15:16, , 21F
08/13 15:16, 21F
推
08/13 17:41, , 22F
08/13 17:41, 22F
→
08/13 18:39, , 23F
08/13 18:39, 23F
→
08/13 18:39, , 24F
08/13 18:39, 24F
推
08/13 19:37, , 25F
08/13 19:37, 25F
→
08/13 19:38, , 26F
08/13 19:38, 26F
推
08/13 21:02, , 27F
08/13 21:02, 27F
推
08/13 21:05, , 28F
08/13 21:05, 28F
推
08/13 21:11, , 29F
08/13 21:11, 29F
推
08/13 21:12, , 30F
08/13 21:12, 30F
→
08/13 22:25, , 31F
08/13 22:25, 31F
推
08/13 23:15, , 32F
08/13 23:15, 32F
討論串 (同標題文章)
完整討論串 (本文為第 2 之 2 篇):
心得
49
131