[請益] 升息
看太多恐懼升息的言論,說升了就會崩盤
昨天在某處看到這一段話
跟一般說升息會崩盤的言論不同調
PO出來跟大家討論看看,是否真的如此
還是因為時空背景不同,升息所產生的市場反映也會不同
原文如下:
至於另一個大家所擔心的美國Fed升息問息,其實我認為昨天的華爾街日報有一段報導
寫的真的是很不錯,他上面是說:別再恐懼升息 其實降息才該害怕,因為根據數據顯示
,從自1979年以來,Fed一共有過三次升息循環,而在這三次升息循環展開後半年,S&P
500總報酬率平均約2%,雖不算出色,但也絕非災難,但升息前半年則高達近16%;
反觀近幾次降息循環展開後的半年報酬率,平均報酬率為慘不忍睹的-8.2%,顯見升息
其實沒有什麼好怕的,換句話說,就算Fed真的在9月升息,那麼頂多就是消息面對短線
行情有一些衝擊,但絕對不會把現有美股的多頭趨勢扭轉成為空頭,這是不可能的,
既然升息不會扭轉美股現有的多頭趨勢,那我們到底在怕什麼?
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