[心得] 重大系統風險爆發前的情況
看了那麼多次重大系統風險造成的崩盤情況,
我大概可以了解一些風險爆發前台股可能發生的一些狀況.
既然它是重大系統風險,換言之對於任何投資者不管是外資法人還是一般民眾,
大戶還是小戶都會造成相當層面的殺傷力,
且由於這樣的風險可以動輒造成當天跳低3%以上開盤,一天跌掉4-5%以上,
同時引發大量的跌停股造成流動性風險,大戶法人若為先知,自然是能避則避,
能早跑就早跑,所以在這種風險發生前,台股常已經不尋常連續走弱收低好幾天,
尤其美股每次重挫400點以上的前一天,台股多半都是中長黑收場,
收盤後也常常見到外資大賣與期貨避險空單暴增,
便可發現外資法人似乎已經提前預知這樣的情況,因而先跑先贏,
所以,如果發現台股不斷走低且異常偏弱於國際股市一段時間,千萬別以為只是一時現象,
背後可能隱藏什麼重大系統性危機都不知道.
還有便是選擇權波動率,特別是賣權波動率不正常的急升,
以及BUY PUT持續性的大增,SELL PUT甚至出現大量減少,
權值股借券放空一面倒的增加,這些都是警訊.
符合這些條件,或許不一定會發生重大系統風險,
但只要一發生便有可能造成傾家蕩產甚或鉅額負債的後果,
有時寧可多慮點,也不要讓自己受到重傷害,保護自己為上策.
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