[心得] 殺破9500未必是壞事
這個盤目前依然未脫9500-9800區間震盪,
但就趨勢來說殺破9500直探9250-9300的機率仍在,而且,
個人也認為殺破9500測試9250-9300的話,對多頭而言反而不是壞事.
為什麼我會這麼覺得? 去年十月上來的行情走了8個月,
上次攻萬點量縮過速且快速回到9500一帶,
就代表中多無法進一步突破過高拉回格局,季線目前逐漸要扣抵高指數區,
加上上方套牢壓力沉重,貿然再攻很容易遇到解套賣壓而拉回,
尤其是9800這道波段多空分界點,恐怕至少要有1200-1300億的日量能
才有辦法重新站上,問題以現階段的台股來說外資期貨的空單量仍大,
何況台股每每反彈量即萎縮,要一鼓作氣攻上9800實在相當吃力,
比較好的方式反而是先下後上,先破9500加速投資人退場,
然後再好好的做一波上去.
我們還要觀察一個點那就是年線,年線已經來到9300,如果行情一直守在9500以上的話,
估7月即會來到9500,假若大盤一直反覆測試堅守9500之上,
卻沒能進一步突破局勢(像是有效站上萬點之類),到時年線上到9500後,
多頭防守壓力會更大,畢竟年線被視為多方生命線,重要性不言可喻,
萬一跌破,就會形成圓形頭部破年線,對中長多殺傷力就大了,
反之趁現階段先測9300再上的話,年線就不會那麼快來到9500,
多方會比較有緩衝空間.
近期如果真的破了9500,且賣壓出籠加速下探9300止穩的話,會是另一次比較好的買點出現,
建議逢低接績優股,反之若9500守住,則只適合少量區間低進高出,
等到格局突破後再來改變策略.
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